Canada Masters · R64 · Hard · 29 Jul 2025
Lorenzo Musetti v James Duckworth
67–49 in points · Lorenzo Musetti won
Why it went the way it did
Lorenzo Musetti won 9.9 more points than James Duckworth relative to what the serve alone predicted. James Duckworth's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.7, forehand execution −2.1, return execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lorenzo Musetti | James Duckworth | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.7 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.4 | −2.0 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.0 | +1.7 | +2.5 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | −2.1 | −0.2 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −2.7 | −1.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.1 | −1.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.2 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −0.8 | +1.1 | −0.2 | −0.7 | +2.7 | −12.0 | −10.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Lorenzo Musetti | James Duckworth | Net, Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.8 | −5.3 | +4.5 | |
| 2 | +0.7 | −4.7 | +5.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lorenzo Musetti serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 59% | 12% 50% | 38% 100% |
| 2 | 48% 70% | 5% 100% | 48% 80% |
Set to set +0.52 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
James Duckworth serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 47% | 11% 60% | 50% 73% |
| 2 | 41% 57% | 6% 0% | 53% 44% |
Set to set −1.16 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lorenzo Musetti
4.3 points left on the table across 145 shots 3.00 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×3; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
James Duckworth
4.7 points left on the table across 152 shots 3.09 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.22 pts