ITF Bistrita · R16 · Clay · 21 Aug 2025
Maria Sara Popa v Miriam Bianca Bulgaru
32–55 in points · Miriam Bianca Bulgaru won
Why it went the way it did
Miriam Bianca Bulgaru won 12.0 more points than Maria Sara Popa relative to what the serve alone predicted. Maria Sara Popa's biggest leaks: return execution −2.9, backhand execution −2.4, forehand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Maria Sara Popa | Miriam Bianca Bulgaru | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Return | −0.6 | +0.3 | −2.9 | −3.1 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +2.6 | +2.9 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.0 | −2.1 | −1.4 | +0.4 | +0.6 | −1.7 | −0.6 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.2 | −2.4 | −2.6 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.4 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | +1.0 | ±0.0 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| All shots | −1.5 | +1.1 | −9.0 | −9.3 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.3 | +2.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Maria Sara Popa | Miriam Bianca Bulgaru | Net, Maria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.1 | +2.2 | −8.3 | |
| 2 | −3.2 | +0.4 | −3.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Maria Sara Popa serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% 60% | 62% 15% | 14% 67% |
| 2 | 30% 25% | 33% 67% | 37% 50% |
Within sets +1.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Miriam Bianca Bulgaru serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 100% | 13% 50% | 40% 67% |
| 2 | 33% 63% | 33% 50% | 33% 75% |
Within sets −0.90 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Maria Sara Popa
5.4 points left on the table across 160 shots 3.40 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Miriam Bianca Bulgaru
3.4 points left on the table across 154 shots 2.20 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts