RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 4 charted matches · 2025–2025

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Shot expected value

The share of points Miriam Bianca Bulgaru goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 54 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 57% 54.0%±11.5 47.6%
BH through the middle 31% 47.7%±13.5 43.3%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 43 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 47% 41.4%±12.8 47.8%
BH through the middle 40% 55.7%±13.4 43.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 37 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 30% 50.1%±14.8 52.7%
FH down the line 30% 62.7%±14.3 52.2%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 50% 66% / 66%
Body 26% 25% 56% / 57%
T 29% 25% 66% / 68%

90 normal · 4 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 71% ▲ 70% / 66%
Body 34% 14% ▼ 62% / 56%
T 25% 14% ▼ 66% / 64%

79 normal · 7 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide46% 67.3%±9.0 n=43
Body26% 63.6%±10.8 n=24
T29% 59.6%±10.7 n=27

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.45).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide43% 63.6%±9.7 n=37
Body33% 66.2%±10.2 n=28
T24% 66.0%±10.9 n=21

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.89).

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 24 52% +8.3±11.2
1stAd courtT 10 42% +6.1±12.8
1stAd courtWide 33 47% +12.1±10.3
1stDeuce courtBody 35 41% −1.4±10.0
1stDeuce courtT 20 35% +3.1±11.1
1stDeuce courtWide 18 40% +6.0±11.6
2ndAd courtBody 10 61% +6.2±12.7
2ndAd courtT 5 59% +3.6±13.7
2ndAd courtWide 17 53% −0.2±12.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 23 63% +8.4±10.9
2ndDeuce courtT 13 58% +1.7±12.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 3 58% +4.2±14.1

Charted matches