ITF Bistrita · SF · Clay · 23 Aug 2025
Ylena In Albon v Miriam Bianca Bulgaru
32–58 in points · Miriam Bianca Bulgaru won
Why it went the way it did
Miriam Bianca Bulgaru won 13.5 more points than Ylena In Albon relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ylena In Albon's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.9, return execution −1.8, slice shot selection −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ylena In Albon | Miriam Bianca Bulgaru | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.2 | −1.8 | −1.3 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.2 | +0.5 | +1.6 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +2.6 | +4.2 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.3 | −2.9 | −2.3 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +0.9 | +1.8 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.7 | −1.2 | −2.9 | +0.2 | −0.6 | +0.4 | ±0.0 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.9 | −0.8 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −1.4 | −1.1 |
| Touch | −0.2 | +0.4 | −1.5 | −1.3 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +1.3 |
| All shots | +0.7 | +1.2 | −7.3 | −5.4 | −0.1 | +3.0 | +5.2 | +8.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Ylena In Albon | Miriam Bianca Bulgaru | Net, Ylena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.0 | +5.3 | −7.3 | |
| 2 | −3.3 | +2.8 | −6.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ylena In Albon serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 21% | 17% 20% | 34% 50% |
| 2 | 45% 44% | 30% 17% | 25% 40% |
Set to set −1.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Miriam Bianca Bulgaru serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 40% | 36% 60% | 29% 75% |
| 2 | 44% 67% | 26% 71% | 30% 50% |
Within sets +0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ylena In Albon
3.4 points left on the table across 141 shots 2.38 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Miriam Bianca Bulgaru
3.7 points left on the table across 151 shots 2.44 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts