US Open · R64 · Hard · 27 Aug 2025
Joao Fonseca v Tomas Machac
78–94 in points · Tomas Machac won
Why it went the way it did
Tomas Machac won 5.6 more points than Joao Fonseca relative to what the serve alone predicted. Joao Fonseca's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.0, slice execution −1.6, backhand execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Joao Fonseca | Tomas Machac | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +3.1 | +3.1 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +2.0 | +1.6 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +4.3 | +4.7 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +1.4 | +0.9 | +2.1 | −0.1 | +1.5 | −2.6 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +1.2 | −0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.1 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −5.0 | −1.6 | −6.8 | −0.2 | −3.7 | +0.1 | −3.9 |
| Net | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.7 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.7 | +2.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.1 | −2.7 | +3.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +5.9 | +5.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Joao Fonseca | Tomas Machac | Net, Joao | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.7 | +1.5 | +2.2 | |
| 2 | −1.5 | +2.9 | −4.4 | |
| 3 | −2.6 | +0.8 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Joao Fonseca serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 73% | – | 67% 86% |
| 2 | 35% 57% | 15% 67% | 50% 50% |
| 3 | 50% 58% | 8% 50% | 42% 70% |
Set to set +0.45 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tomas Machac serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 65% | 5% 100% | 46% 79% |
| 2 | 54% 77% | – | 46% 73% |
| 3 | 46% 77% | – | 54% 73% |
Set to set −0.19 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Joao Fonseca
8.1 points left on the table across 269 shots 3.03 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Tomas Machac
7.4 points left on the table across 260 shots 2.83 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH crosscourt ×6; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts