Davis Cup Qualifiers · RR · Hard · 13 Sep 2025
Francisco Comesana v Jesper De Jong
50–64 in points · Jesper De Jong won
Why it went the way it did
Jesper De Jong won 8.8 more points than Francisco Comesana relative to what the serve alone predicted. Francisco Comesana's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.4, backhand execution −2.4, net execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Francisco Comesana | Jesper De Jong | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −1.2 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.2 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −2.0 | −2.9 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +2.1 | −0.6 | +1.1 | −0.4 | +2.4 | +0.6 | +2.7 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | +0.6 | −2.4 | −2.3 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +1.8 | +2.4 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −3.4 | +0.1 | −3.1 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.2 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.6 | +0.2 | −2.1 | −1.3 | +0.4 | +0.2 | −0.6 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −0.4 | −0.8 | −7.5 | −8.8 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Francisco Comesana | Jesper De Jong | Net, Francisco | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.7 | +0.4 | −5.2 | |
| 2 | −4.0 | −0.4 | −3.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Francisco Comesana serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% 71% | 9% 67% | 70% 48% |
| 2 | 43% 58% | 14% 25% | 43% 67% |
Set to set +2.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jesper De Jong serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 69% | 12% 67% | 36% 78% |
| 2 | 52% 71% | – | 48% 69% |
Within sets −0.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Francisco Comesana
5.8 points left on the table across 190 shots 3.04 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Jesper De Jong
5.4 points left on the table across 196 shots 2.74 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts