Beijing · R128 · Hard · 23 Sep 2025
Caroline Dolehide v Sorana Cirstea
40–56 in points · Sorana Cirstea won
Why it went the way it did
Sorana Cirstea won 9.2 more points than Caroline Dolehide relative to what the serve alone predicted. Caroline Dolehide's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.8, return execution −2.4, slice shot selection −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Caroline Dolehide | Sorana Cirstea | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.2 | −2.4 | −2.9 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.4 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +0.6 | +1.7 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +2.1 | +3.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | −3.8 | −3.7 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.2 | +0.1 | −2.3 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.4 | −1.4 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.1 | −1.1 | −6.3 | −7.5 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Caroline Dolehide | Sorana Cirstea | Net, Caroline | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.6 | +1.2 | −5.7 | |
| 2 | −3.0 | +0.5 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Caroline Dolehide serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69% 55% | 7% 0% | 24% 29% |
| 2 | 74% 50% | 4% 0% | 22% 50% |
Set to set +0.50 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Sorana Cirstea serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 60% | – | 47% 78% |
| 2 | 48% 60% | 5% 100% | 48% 60% |
Within sets −0.74 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Caroline Dolehide
4.4 points left on the table across 140 shots 3.16 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Sorana Cirstea
3.7 points left on the table across 153 shots 2.43 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts