Tokyo · R16 · Hard · 26 Sep 2025
Casper Ruud v Matteo Berrettini
66–55 in points · Casper Ruud won
Why it went the way it did
Casper Ruud won 6.5 more points than Matteo Berrettini relative to what the serve alone predicted. Matteo Berrettini's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.6, slice execution −3.0, backhand execution −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Casper Ruud | Matteo Berrettini | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| Return | +0.4 | −1.0 | −0.1 | −0.8 | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +1.9 | +2.7 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −2.4 | −2.2 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.9 | −0.2 | −1.9 | +0.3 | −3.6 | −3.0 | −6.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 |
| Other | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.8 | −3.2 | +2.5 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −4.0 | −2.9 | −6.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Casper Ruud | Matteo Berrettini | Net, Casper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.3 | −0.3 | +1.6 | |
| 2 | −1.1 | −6.1 | +4.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Casper Ruud serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 71% | 22% 75% | 39% 86% |
| 2 | 29% 100% | 10% 100% | 62% 62% |
Set to set +3.05 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Matteo Berrettini serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 65% | 8% 100% | 50% 75% |
| 2 | 42% 50% | 8% 50% | 50% 58% |
Set to set +0.31 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.86 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Casper Ruud
3.4 points left on the table across 189 shots 1.81 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit FH down the line ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
Matteo Berrettini
4.3 points left on the table across 195 shots 2.23 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts