ITF Bratislava · R16 · Hard · 2 Oct 2025
Mia Pohankova v Alina Charaeva
73–58 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Mia Pohankova won 6.2 more points than Alina Charaeva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alina Charaeva's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.6, forehand execution −1.6, serve 1st execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mia Pohankova | Alina Charaeva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.5 | +2.8 | +3.2 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.7 | +2.2 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +2.0 | +2.2 | +5.1 | −0.2 | +1.6 | −1.6 | −0.2 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +1.6 | +4.0 | +6.1 | +0.9 | +2.3 | +2.6 | +5.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.3 | ±0.0 | −2.4 | +0.6 | −3.6 | +1.1 | −1.8 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.8 | −0.3 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +1.8 | +2.4 |
| Touch | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| All shots | +1.5 | +2.6 | +9.6 | +13.7 | +1.1 | +1.4 | +5.0 | +7.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Mia Pohankova | Alina Charaeva | Net, Mia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +10.1 | +6.6 | +3.5 | |
| 2 | +3.6 | +0.9 | +2.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mia Pohankova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 71% | 20% 50% | 39% 44% |
| 2 | 52% 65% | 12% 50% | 36% 42% |
Set to set +0.17 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alina Charaeva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 50% | 36% 50% | 29% 25% |
| 2 | 45% 46% | 31% 33% | 24% 57% |
Within sets +2.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mia Pohankova
6.2 points left on the table across 299 shots 2.07 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.23 pts
Alina Charaeva
6.7 points left on the table across 301 shots 2.21 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts