RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2022–2025

Alina Charaeva

Shot expected value

The share of points Alina Charaeva goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 119 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 46% 51.4%±9.5 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 18% 35.9%±12.2 40.4%
BH through the middle 16% 40.2%±12.9 43.3%
BH slice through the middle 11% 29.9%±13.1 34.4%
BH down the line 8% 51.2%±15.0 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 103 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 51% 53.9%±9.6 46.7%
FH down the line 23% 47.7%±12.4 44.9%
FH through the middle 19% 38.2%±12.6 41.3%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 73 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 49% 47.5%±11.0 47.9%
BH slice crosscourt 16% 39.8%±14.2 38.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 63 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 27% 51.8%±13.5 50.9%
FH crosscourt 25% 51.5%±13.7 52.7%
FH down the line 24% 44.1%±13.8 52.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Alina Charaeva's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 40 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 44% ▲ 59% / 66%
Body 39% 33% 56% / 57%
T 26% 22% 69% / 68%

124 normal · 9 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 48% 59% / 66%
Body 27% 26% 48% / 56%
T 25% 26% 61% / 64%

91 normal · 31 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide36% 51.9%±9.3 n=48
Body38% 51.3%±9.1 n=51
T26% 55.2%±10.2 n=34

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.79).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide48% 46.7%±8.7 n=58
Body27% 42.1%±10.2 n=33
T25% 42.9%±10.4 n=31

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.73).

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 12 43% −0.6±12.6
1stAd courtT 31 37% +1.6±10.2
1stAd courtWide 45 34% −0.7±9.0
1stDeuce courtBody 31 42% −0.3±10.4
1stDeuce courtT 24 29% −3.2±10.2
1stDeuce courtWide 38 31% −2.8±9.2
2ndAd courtBody 18 57% +2.3±11.7
2ndAd courtT 10 56% +1.2±12.9
2ndAd courtWide 19 55% +1.7±11.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 25 50% −4.8±11.1
2ndDeuce courtT 8 55% −1.3±13.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 16 57% +3.0±12.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Alina Charaeva's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 14.2% · won 56% · +3.9±11.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alina Charaeva wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 56% · +11.7±11.5 vs own baseline · +19.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Anastasia Zakharova (3/6), Jaqueline Cristian (4/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 54% · +9.3±12.6 vs own baseline · +18.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mia Pohankova (5/9), Nahia Berecoechea (6/7)
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 48% · +3.5±12.4 vs own baseline · +4.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Anastasia Zakharova (4/7), Jaqueline Cristian (5/6)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 46% · +1.2±12.4 vs own baseline · −0.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jaqueline Cristian (5/7)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · rally+1.8132

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · rally−3.5133

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Yulia Putintseva, Elsa Jacquemot, Caroline Wozniacki

Charted matches