Shanghai Masters · F · Hard · 12 Oct 2025
Valentin Vacherot v Arthur Rinderknech
87–74 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Valentin Vacherot won 10.1 more points than Arthur Rinderknech relative to what the serve alone predicted. Arthur Rinderknech's biggest leaks: return execution −5.1, forehand execution −1.7, slice shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Valentin Vacherot | Arthur Rinderknech | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.4 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.6 | −1.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −5.1 | −4.6 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.1 | +3.7 | +6.0 | −0.2 | +2.8 | −1.7 | +0.9 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.9 | +3.1 | +4.2 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.5 | +1.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +1.5 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −1.4 | +0.3 | −1.2 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.7 | +0.6 | +0.2 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −1.4 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −1.1 | −1.3 |
| All shots | −0.7 | +1.8 | +6.8 | +7.9 | +0.8 | +2.6 | −5.7 | −2.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Valentin Vacherot | Arthur Rinderknech | Net, Valentin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.8 | +1.8 | −2.6 | |
| 2 | −1.1 | −4.4 | +3.3 | |
| 3 | +9.7 | +0.4 | +9.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Valentin Vacherot serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% 50% | 39% 64% | 39% 82% |
| 2 | 23% 67% | 42% 73% | 35% 89% |
| 3 | 28% 100% | 39% 86% | 33% 83% |
Set to set −1.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Arthur Rinderknech serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 85% | 21% 80% | 25% 67% |
| 2 | 44% 91% | 16% 50% | 40% 40% |
| 3 | 46% 71% | 3% 100% | 51% 32% |
Set to set −2.24 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Valentin Vacherot
5.0 points left on the table across 216 shots 2.29 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
Arthur Rinderknech
5.0 points left on the table across 226 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts