RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 10 charted matches · 2024–2026

Valentin Vacherot

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 66.3% ±3.2 raw 64.7% · tour 63.4% · 796 points
Return points won 36.1% ±3.3 raw 33.2% · tour 36.6% · 762 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.01 ±0.14 better than 53% of ATP · raw −0.01
Shot selection +0.23 ±0.27 better than 74% of ATP · raw +0.23
Execution +0.01 ±1.07 better than 69% of ATP · raw +0.02
Tactical adaptability +0.01 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed −0.04 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.29 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 85% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,132 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Valentin Vacherot goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 280 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 59% 43.8%±6.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 22% 36.3%±8.7 43.7%
BH down the line 13% 44.1%±11.0 46.4%
FH inside-out 4% 46.3%±14.7 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 222 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 41% 43.5%±7.7 46.6%
FH down the line 29% 41.6%±8.8 44.7%
FH through the middle 25% 45.1%±9.4 41.5%
FH slice down the line 5% 32.7%±13.9 25.6%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 154 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 61% 47.9%±7.7 48.0%
BH down the line 18% 50.6%±11.9 46.5%
BH through the middle 18% 33.5%±11.3 43.8%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 145 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 42.0%±9.3 46.9%
FH down the line 34% 42.0%±9.8 44.8%
FH through the middle 23% 45.0%±11.1 41.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Valentin Vacherot's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 64 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 33% ▼ 69% / 73%
Body 23% 40% ▲ 69% / 63%
T 33% 27% 79% / 75%

402 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 51% 79% / 73%
Body 17% 31% ▲ 60% / 63%
T 36% 18% ▼ 69% / 72%

330 normal · 49 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 62.6%±5.5 n=182 44%
Body23% 66.3%±6.9 n=97 10% ▼
T33% 65.6%±6.0 n=138 46% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.67).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 70.9%±5.1 n=182 61% ▲
Body18% 56.3%±8.2 n=70 5% ▼
T34% 62.4%±6.4 n=127 34%

Off equilibrium (p = 0.005): serve wide more. Gap 5.6 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.1 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.78 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.0±5.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (265 repeats, 511 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 29 34% −2.9±10.1
1stAd courtT 78 33% +4.8±7.4
1stAd courtWide 124 26% −1.1±5.8
1stDeuce courtBody 37 31% −5.3±9.3
1stDeuce courtT 105 32% +7.2±6.6
1stDeuce courtWide 132 26% −1.2±5.7
2ndAd courtBody 39 40% −9.1±9.7
2ndAd courtT 27 49% −0.5±10.9
2ndAd courtWide 62 41% −7.6±8.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 48 42% −7.1±9.2
2ndDeuce courtT 38 50% +0.2±10.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 43 46% −2.3±9.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Valentin Vacherot's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.4% · won 68% · −3.0±9.7 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 3.5% · won 68% · −4.0±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.0% · won 64% · −7.7±10.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.6% · won 43% · +3.0±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 7.4% · won 43% · +2.5±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 10.1% · won 35% · −5.2±9.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.2% · won 51% · +6.7±10.3 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH down the line used 2.6% · won 47% · +2.1±11.7 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 8.1% · won 46% · +0.8±8.3 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.1% · won 46% · +1.1±10.4 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.8% · won 45% · +0.3±8.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Valentin Vacherot wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 51% · +4.9±11.4 vs own baseline · +6.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (5/10)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.2% · won 48% · +2.0±11.5 vs own baseline · +2.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Casper Ruud (2/6), Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (3/7)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 48% · +1.5±12.9 vs own baseline · −2.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.4% · won 47% · +0.7±9.4 vs own baseline · +0.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (3/9), Hubert Hurkacz (7/15)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 47% · +0.8±11.9 vs own baseline · −5.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 46% · +0.4±9.8 vs own baseline · −1.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · rally+1.9123
FH to their forehand · rally+1.8257
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.9182
BH to their backhand · return+0.9130
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.7138

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−2.7313
FH to their backhand · rally−2.6222
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.8187
FH to their forehand · serve +1−1.8128
BH to the middle · return−1.1132

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

1st serve in66%
FH down the line35%
Avg rally length4.3
BH down the line21%
Forehand share54%
Wide serves · deuce44%
Points at net11%
Serve & volley3%
Wide serves · ad48%
Deep returns24%
Run-around forehands14%
Drop shots / shot0.8%
Chipped returns9%
Unforced errors / shot8.7%
Point-ending shots20.1%
T serves · ad34%
Through the middle21%
Backhand slice7%
T serves · deuce33%

Plays most like

  1. Magnus Norman 2000–2001 plan v
  2. Kei Nishikori 2011–2025 plan v
  3. Tommy Paul 2016–2026 plan v
  4. Alex Michelsen 2023–2026 plan v
  5. Novak Djokovic 2005–2026 plan v
  6. Jarkko Nieminen 2003–2014 plan v
  7. Pablo Carreno Busta 2015–2026 plan v
  8. Pablo Andujar 2013–2023 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Magnus Norman 2000–2001
  2. Jarkko Nieminen 2003–2014
  3. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014

Charted matches