Brussels · R32 · Hard · 14 Oct 2025
Botic Van De Zandschulp v Joao Fonseca
92–76 in points · Botic Van De Zandschulp won
Why it went the way it did
Botic Van De Zandschulp won 11.6 more points than Joao Fonseca relative to what the serve alone predicted. Joao Fonseca's biggest leaks: return execution −2.6, serve 1st execution −2.2, forehand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Botic Van De Zandschulp | Joao Fonseca | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.1 | +2.5 | +2.5 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −2.2 | −2.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.1 | +2.9 | +3.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −2.6 | −3.6 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +3.1 | −2.2 | +1.1 | −0.2 | +1.9 | −2.1 | −0.3 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −1.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.6 | +0.3 | −2.3 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.2 | −2.7 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +1.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.6 | +0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +0.3 | +0.5 | +1.3 | +2.1 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −8.0 | −9.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Botic Van De Zandschulp | Joao Fonseca | Net, Botic | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.2 | −4.7 | +8.0 | |
| 2 | −1.1 | −4.7 | +3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Botic Van De Zandschulp serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 67% | 12% 75% | 44% 73% |
| 2 | 32% 75% | 13% 60% | 55% 71% |
Set to set +0.04 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Joao Fonseca serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 41% | 22% 42% | 46% 68% |
| 2 | 31% 62% | 17% 57% | 52% 64% |
Set to set +0.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Botic Van De Zandschulp
6.0 points left on the table across 292 shots 2.05 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Joao Fonseca
7.3 points left on the table across 275 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts