RallyIQ

Athens · SF · Hard · 7 Nov 2025

Sebastian Korda v Lorenzo Musetti

88–99 in points · Lorenzo Musetti won

Why it went the way it did

Lorenzo Musetti won 2.3 more points than Sebastian Korda relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sebastian Korda's biggest leaks: return execution −4.2, backhand execution −2.0, forehand execution −1.6.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotSebastian KordaLorenzo Musetti
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st +0.3 +0.1 −1.0 −0.6 +0.1 ±0.0 +1.4 +1.5
Serve 2nd ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.7 −0.7 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.5 −0.5
Return +0.2 +0.4 −4.2 −3.6 −0.2 −1.8 +1.6 −0.4
Forehand ±0.0 +2.6 −1.6 +1.0 +0.1 +1.8 −0.3 +1.5
Backhand +0.4 +0.2 −2.0 −1.4 +0.1 +0.7 +0.7 +1.6
Slice +0.1 −1.1 −1.1 −2.1 −0.5 −6.6 +0.3 −6.9
Net +0.4 +0.3 +0.3 +1.1 −0.2 +0.1 +0.6 +0.5
Touch ±0.0 −0.4 +1.0 +0.7 +0.2 −1.2 −0.1 −1.2
Other ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.1 +0.4 +0.5
All shots +1.4+2.2 −9.2−5.6 −0.4−7.1 +4.1−3.3

Set by set

SetSebastian KordaLorenzo MusettiNet, Sebastian
1−5.0+4.0 −9.0
2−0.7−5.7 +5.0
3+0.1−1.6 +1.7

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Sebastian Korda serving

SetWideBodyT
1 36% 20% 7% 0% 57% 13%
2 58% 62% 6% 50% 36% 85%
3 56% 68% 3% 100% 41% 64%

Set to set +0.36 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Lorenzo Musetti serving

SetWideBodyT
1 36% 60% – 64% 89%
2 56% 65% 8% 33% 36% 46%
3 42% 64% 6% 67% 52% 63%

Set to set −0.52 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −1.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Sebastian Korda

6.8 points left on the table across 332 shots 2.06 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts

Lorenzo Musetti

9.8 points left on the table across 323 shots 3.04 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.73 pts
  2. Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
  4. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts