Australian Open · R64 · Hard · 22 Jan 2026
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Tomas Machac
135–137 in points · Tomas Machac won
Why it went the way it did
Tomas Machac won 0.8 more points than Stefanos Tsitsipas relative to what the serve alone predicted. Stefanos Tsitsipas's biggest leaks: return execution −5.2, slice shot selection −3.1, serve 2nd execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Tomas Machac | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.2 | +3.6 | +3.4 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −1.3 | −1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −2.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −1.1 |
| Return | −1.1 | +0.9 | −5.2 | −5.4 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.5 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +2.5 | +6.1 | +8.5 | −0.3 | +2.3 | +1.3 | +3.4 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.2 | −1.4 | −1.7 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +2.7 | +3.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −3.1 | +2.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −2.0 | +0.3 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.2 | −1.0 | −0.6 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −1.4 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.7 |
| All shots | −1.5 | −0.4 | +1.9 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.8 | −0.1 | +0.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Tomas Machac | Net, Stefanos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.8 | +2.2 | −3.0 | |
| 2 | +2.1 | −3.8 | +5.9 | |
| 3 | −0.8 | +0.9 | −1.7 | |
| 4 | −0.5 | +1.5 | −2.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 78% | 4% 100% | 60% 60% |
| 2 | 60% 73% | 12% 67% | 28% 71% |
| 3 | 48% 70% | 5% 50% | 48% 75% |
| 4 | 54% 68% | 7% 33% | 39% 63% |
Set to set +0.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.55 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tomas Machac serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 100% | 12% 33% | 40% 70% |
| 2 | 50% 43% | 4% 100% | 46% 54% |
| 3 | 43% 79% | 9% 50% | 48% 76% |
| 4 | 51% 67% | 7% 33% | 41% 76% |
Set to set +0.60 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.74 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
10.5 points left on the table across 391 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
Tomas Machac
7.6 points left on the table across 363 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts