Australian Open · R16 · Hard · 25 Jan 2026
Iva Jovic v Yulia Putintseva
51–23 in points · Iva Jovic won
Why it went the way it did
Iva Jovic won 13.9 more points than Yulia Putintseva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yulia Putintseva's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.0, touch shot selection −0.9, backhand execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Iva Jovic | Yulia Putintseva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.4 | +5.4 | +5.7 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.5 | +2.3 | −0.2 | +0.7 | −0.5 | ±0.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.8 | −0.3 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −3.0 | +1.6 | −1.4 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.2 | −1.3 |
| All shots | −0.6 | +1.3 | +8.8 | +9.5 | −0.3 | −2.4 | −1.7 | −4.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Iva Jovic | Yulia Putintseva | Net, Iva | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.0 | −2.0 | +8.0 | |
| 2 | +3.5 | −2.4 | +5.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Iva Jovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 86% | 35% 67% | 24% 75% |
| 2 | 33% 86% | 33% 57% | 33% 43% |
Within sets ±0.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Yulia Putintseva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 11% | 12% 50% | 35% 50% |
| 2 | 53% 30% | 16% 67% | 32% 17% |
Within sets +0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Iva Jovic
5.0 points left on the table across 183 shots 2.72 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Yulia Putintseva
5.3 points left on the table across 185 shots 2.84 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH drop shot crosscourt ×2; FH drop shot through the middle rates higher · 0.27 pts