Delray Beach · R16 · Hard · 18 Feb 2026
Casper Ruud v Marcos Giron
99–100 in points · Casper Ruud won
Why it went the way it did
Marcos Giron won 2.1 more points than Casper Ruud relative to what the serve alone predicted. Casper Ruud's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.2, slice shot selection −4.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Casper Ruud | Marcos Giron | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +4.6 | +4.6 | +0.3 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.7 | +2.6 | −0.1 | +0.7 | −0.8 | −0.2 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +2.8 | −5.2 | −1.9 | +0.3 | +3.3 | +7.3 | +10.9 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −4.1 | +1.1 | −2.8 | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +2.2 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +1.8 | −0.2 | +5.7 | +7.2 | +1.2 | +2.1 | +6.1 | +9.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Casper Ruud | Marcos Giron | Net, Casper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.1 | +3.4 | −3.3 | |
| 2 | +5.3 | +7.7 | −2.4 | |
| 3 | +1.9 | −1.7 | +3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Casper Ruud serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 77% | 12% 67% | 38% 50% |
| 2 | 46% 68% | 9% 40% | 44% 71% |
| 3 | 52% 100% | – | 48% 58% |
Set to set −0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.66 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marcos Giron serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 73% | 7% 100% | 37% 80% |
| 2 | 53% 60% | 3% 100% | 45% 88% |
| 3 | 59% 59% | – | 41% 75% |
Set to set −0.31 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Casper Ruud
6.7 points left on the table across 340 shots 1.96 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Marcos Giron
7.1 points left on the table across 345 shots 2.05 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts