Indian Wells Masters · R128 · Hard · 5 Mar 2026
Aleksandar Kovacevic v Hubert Hurkacz
88–79 in points · Aleksandar Kovacevic won
Why it went the way it did
Aleksandar Kovacevic won 4.2 more points than Hubert Hurkacz relative to what the serve alone predicted. Hubert Hurkacz's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.4, slice execution −1.9, slice shot selection −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Hubert Hurkacz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.7 | −2.8 | −0.3 | −0.9 | −1.6 | −2.7 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.6 | −3.4 | −2.2 | −0.1 | +1.6 | −4.4 | −2.9 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.9 | −0.6 | +0.2 | +0.8 | −1.7 | −0.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −1.9 | −3.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| All shots | −0.2 | −1.3 | −5.5 | −7.0 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −10.7 | −11.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Hubert Hurkacz | Net, Aleksandar | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.2 | −5.4 | +2.2 | |
| 2 | −3.9 | −5.9 | +2.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Aleksandar Kovacevic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% 94% | 6% 50% | 43% 67% |
| 2 | 33% 53% | 2% 100% | 64% 69% |
Set to set −2.81 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Hubert Hurkacz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 75% | 8% 100% | 53% 67% |
| 2 | 40% 61% | 13% 50% | 47% 62% |
Set to set +0.42 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
6.2 points left on the table across 238 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Hubert Hurkacz
5.8 points left on the table across 242 shots 2.40 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts