Indian Wells Masters · R32 · Hard · 9 Mar 2026
Joao Fonseca v Tommy Paul
64–44 in points · Joao Fonseca won
Why it went the way it did
Joao Fonseca won 11.2 more points than Tommy Paul relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tommy Paul's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.9, slice shot selection −2.3, backhand execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Joao Fonseca | Tommy Paul | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +2.4 | +2.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +2.5 | +2.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.1 | +3.8 | +3.6 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +2.4 | +2.9 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.2 | +4.8 | +6.5 | +0.7 | +2.1 | −2.9 | −0.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +5.2 | +6.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −0.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.3 | +0.4 | −3.0 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | +1.8 | −0.5 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +1.6 | +2.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +19.1 | +17.9 | +1.7 | +1.2 | +3.9 | +6.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Joao Fonseca | Tommy Paul | Net, Joao | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +9.1 | +2.7 | +6.4 | |
| 2 | +8.8 | +4.0 | +4.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Joao Fonseca serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 67% | – | 61% 71% |
| 2 | 59% 75% | 4% 0% | 37% 70% |
Within sets −0.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 45% | 6% 100% | 33% 50% |
| 2 | 45% 50% | 5% 100% | 50% 45% |
Set to set +0.37 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Joao Fonseca
5.3 points left on the table across 203 shots 2.61 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Tommy Paul
3.8 points left on the table across 205 shots 1.85 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts