Miami · R64 · Hard · 20 Mar 2026
Elena Rybakina v Yulia Putintseva
66–51 in points · Elena Rybakina won
Why it went the way it did
Elena Rybakina won 7.6 more points than Yulia Putintseva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yulia Putintseva's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.5, return shot selection −1.4, touch execution −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Elena Rybakina | Yulia Putintseva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +2.6 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.2 | −0.1 | −1.4 | +0.9 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.2 | −0.3 | +1.0 | −0.7 | +0.8 | +2.8 | +3.0 |
| Backhand | +0.7 | +0.6 | +2.3 | +3.5 | −0.4 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +1.0 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.3 | +0.4 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −4.5 | +0.6 | −3.9 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −1.0 | −1.5 |
| All shots | +1.4 | +0.5 | +5.7 | +7.6 | −1.8 | −4.8 | +6.6 | +0.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Elena Rybakina | Yulia Putintseva | Net, Elena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.2 | −2.1 | +2.3 | |
| 2 | +7.4 | +2.1 | +5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Elena Rybakina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% 72% | – | 38% 55% |
| 2 | 45% 62% | 3% 100% | 52% 73% |
Set to set ±0.00 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Yulia Putintseva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69% 56% | 23% 83% | 8% 0% |
| 2 | 45% 53% | 36% 42% | 18% 67% |
Within sets +0.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Elena Rybakina
4.4 points left on the table across 227 shots 1.95 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, deuce court hit BH down the line ×5; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Yulia Putintseva
7.2 points left on the table across 207 shots 3.49 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts