Miami Masters · R32 · Hard · 23 Mar 2026
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Arthur Fils
24–53 in points · Arthur Fils won
Why it went the way it did
Arthur Fils won 15.5 more points than Stefanos Tsitsipas relative to what the serve alone predicted. Stefanos Tsitsipas's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.0, forehand execution −3.9, slice shot selection −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Arthur Fils | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Return | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.7 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +2.6 | +2.8 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.8 | −3.9 | −3.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +2.6 | +3.2 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −4.0 | −3.7 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −1.7 | −1.2 | −2.5 | −0.1 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.4 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −0.9 | −7.7 | −7.7 | +0.4 | −0.8 | +8.2 | +7.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Arthur Fils | Net, Stefanos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.3 | +3.3 | −8.6 | |
| 2 | −2.3 | +4.6 | −6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 25% | 5% 100% | 38% 38% |
| 2 | 60% 33% | 5% 0% | 35% 71% |
Within sets −0.69 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Arthur Fils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 88% | 12% 100% | 41% 57% |
| 2 | 57% 75% | – | 43% 100% |
Within sets −0.70 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
1.6 points left on the table across 106 shots 1.47 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts
Arthur Fils
1.8 points left on the table across 103 shots 1.70 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts