Wimbledon · R64 · Grass · 1 Jul 2026
Janice Tjen v Daria Kasatkina
98–117 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Daria Kasatkina won 7.1 more points than Janice Tjen relative to what the serve alone predicted. Janice Tjen's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −16.0, return shot selection −3.2, forehand execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Janice Tjen | Daria Kasatkina | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.8 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −0.3 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +2.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −2.1 |
| Return | +0.8 | −3.2 | +7.8 | +5.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +4.9 | +4.3 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +7.2 | −1.3 | +6.6 | +0.4 | +2.8 | +1.7 | +4.9 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.6 | +3.3 | +4.7 |
| Slice | +0.8 | −16.0 | +9.3 | −5.9 | +0.3 | −2.1 | −1.5 | −3.3 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.4 | −0.8 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +3.2 | +4.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −2.1 |
| All shots | +3.3 | −11.9 | +14.6 | +6.0 | +2.3 | +0.8 | +10.1 | +13.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Janice Tjen | Daria Kasatkina | Net, Janice | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.0 | +3.6 | +0.4 | |
| 2 | −2.5 | +3.8 | −6.3 | |
| 3 | +4.5 | +5.7 | −1.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Janice Tjen serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% 65% | 2% 100% | 64% 59% |
| 2 | 33% 17% | – | 67% 50% |
| 3 | 42% 64% | 4% 100% | 54% 43% |
Set to set −0.01 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.94 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daria Kasatkina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 70% | 12% 50% | 47% 57% |
| 2 | 42% 73% | 12% 100% | 46% 58% |
| 3 | 46% 52% | 9% 75% | 46% 62% |
Set to set +0.35 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Janice Tjen
13.2 points left on the table across 502 shots 2.64 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×15; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×18; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.08 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×16; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.64 pts
Daria Kasatkina
11.5 points left on the table across 490 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×27; BH down the line rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×15; BH down the line rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts