US Open · Q1 · Hard · 24 Aug 2026
Bianca Andreescu v Eva Vedder
62–42 in points · Bianca Andreescu won
Why it went the way it did
Bianca Andreescu won 9.6 more points than Eva Vedder relative to what the serve alone predicted. Eva Vedder's biggest leaks: return execution −4.5, forehand execution −2.2, backhand execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Bianca Andreescu | Eva Vedder | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −4.5 | −5.0 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.8 | −1.1 | +0.3 | −1.0 | +1.5 | −2.2 | −1.6 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +1.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −0.8 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −2.0 | −0.7 | −3.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +0.8 | −0.3 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.5 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.1 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.2 | +0.5 | −8.6 | −9.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Bianca Andreescu | Eva Vedder | Net, Bianca | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.2 | −5.5 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | +0.1 | −3.8 | +3.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Bianca Andreescu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 75% | 20% 83% | 40% 50% |
| 2 | 36% 78% | 28% 71% | 36% 56% |
Set to set +0.55 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.97 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Eva Vedder serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 33% | 15% 100% | 50% 38% |
| 2 | 26% 67% | 17% 75% | 57% 38% |
Within sets +0.76 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Bianca Andreescu
5.0 points left on the table across 146 shots 3.42 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.20 pts
Eva Vedder
5.0 points left on the table across 140 shots 3.56 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts