RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 2022–2026

Eva Vedder

Archetype: Ad-court slider · Avoids the wide serve

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 55.5% ±3.6 raw 54.5% · tour 56.3% · 576 points
Return points won 39.9% ±3.5 raw 36.1% · tour 43.7% · 562 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.22 ±0.20 better than 15% of WTA · raw −0.20
Shot selection +0.01 ±0.33 better than 46% of WTA · raw +0.06
Execution −1.19 ±0.71 better than 15% of WTA · raw −0.86
Points left on the table 2.90 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 16% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,154 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Eva Vedder goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 267 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 42.4%±7.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 22% 29.6%±8.4 43.3%
FH inside-out 10% 55.4%±12.1 52.5%
BH slice through the middle 9% 39.7%±12.0 34.4%
BH down the line 6% 46.9%±13.5 46.8%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 39.6%±14.0 40.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 151 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 30% 42.8%±10.0 41.3%
FH down the line 29% 48.4%±10.3 44.9%
FH crosscourt 26% 53.9%±10.6 46.7%
FH slice through the middle 9% 26.8%±12.7 29.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 140 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 32% 54.7%±10.2 52.7%
FH through the middle 27% 46.8%±10.8 45.8%
FH down the line 16% 42.9%±12.4 52.2%
BH through the middle 13% 45.4%±13.3 46.2%
BH crosscourt 11% 47.7%±13.7 50.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 116 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 62.1%±9.8 47.9%
BH through the middle 28% 48.2%±11.3 42.7%
BH slice through the middle 12% 37.3%±13.6 33.4%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 35.8%±14.4 38.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +5 How much less varied Eva Vedder's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 90 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 38% 61% / 66%
Body 23% 21% 49% / 57%
T 37% 42% 64% / 68%

275 normal · 24 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 58% ▲ 61% / 66%
Body 8% 6% 57% / 56%
T 46% 36% ▼ 66% / 64%

208 normal · 66 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 52.9%±6.8 n=117 54% ▲
Body23% 50.1%±8.3 n=69 8% ▼
T38% 51.1%±6.9 n=113 38%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.87).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide49% 58.7%±6.3 n=135 53% ▲
Body7% 56.4%±11.5 n=20 0% ▼
T43% 57.8%±6.7 n=119 47% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.91).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.47 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −6.7±10.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (147 repeats, 408 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 30 35% −8.6±10.1
1stAd courtT 53 36% +0.2±8.7
1stAd courtWide 101 28% −6.7±6.4
1stDeuce courtBody 79 34% −8.9±7.5
1stDeuce courtT 60 31% −1.4±8.0
1stDeuce courtWide 71 35% +0.8±7.8
2ndAd courtBody 29 50% −5.0±10.7
2ndAd courtT 6 57% +1.9±13.6
2ndAd courtWide 46 53% −0.8±9.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 48 50% −4.0±9.3
2ndDeuce courtT 21 58% +2.4±11.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 16 48% −5.7±12.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Eva Vedder's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 7.3% · won 65% · +5.5±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 6.9% · won 55% · −5.0±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 10.6% · won 55% · −5.0±10.3 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 6.9% · won 47% · −12.8±11.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 12.5% · won 45% · +0.3±11.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 54% · +7.0±11.7 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 5.0% · won 48% · +1.0±11.7 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.2% · won 47% · +0.1±11.6 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → FH down the line used 5.0% · won 46% · −1.0±11.7 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 8.7% · won 46% · −0.9±10.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Eva Vedder wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.4% · won 50% · +5.7±12.1 vs own baseline · +13.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sonay Kartal (3/6), Francisca Jorge (4/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 50% · +5.7±12.1 vs own baseline · +8.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sonay Kartal (4/7)
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 50% · +5.7±12.7 vs own baseline · +10.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sonay Kartal (4/8)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 48% · +3.7±11.4 vs own baseline · +4.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sonay Kartal (6/8)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 48% · +3.5±12.1 vs own baseline · +2.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sonay Kartal (2/7), Francisca Jorge (4/6)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.4% · won 44% · −0.9±12.1 vs own baseline · −1.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · rally+1.2186
BH to the middle · rally+0.7125
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.6135
FH to the middle · return−0.1132
BH to the middle · return−0.8122

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−1.1183
BH to their backhand · rally−0.5233
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.2151
FH to their forehand · rally+0.4196
BH to the middle · return+1.7130

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Clara Burel, Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Arianne Hartono, Angelique Kerber

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Run-around forehands30%
Forehand share58%
Wide serves · ad49%
T serves · ad43%
Avg rally length4.4
Through the middle31%
Drop shots / shot2.0%
Backhand slice23%
Chipped returns13%
T serves · deuce38%
Points at net7%
Serve & volley0%
Wide serves · deuce39%
Deep returns31%
Unforced errors / shot8.7%
Point-ending shots19.8%
FH down the line24%
1st serve in57%
BH down the line9%

Plays most like

  1. Suzan Lamens 2021–2026 plan v
  2. Polona Hercog 2013–2021 plan v
  3. Maria Sakkari 2015–2026 plan v
  4. Jennifer Brady 2016–2023 plan v
  5. Lucia Bronzetti 2021–2025 plan v
  6. Tamara Zidansek 2019–2026 plan v
  7. Kiki Bertens 2012–2021 plan v
  8. Johanna Larsson 2013–2019 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010
  2. Dinara Safina 2007–2011
  3. Marion Bartoli 2003–2013

Charted matches