Game plan

Ajla Tomljanovic v Viktorija Golubic

Every number combines what Ajla Tomljanovic does well with what Viktorija Golubic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Ajla Tomljanovic wins, best of 3 39%90%: 9%–77% · best of 5: 36%

Serve points won 54.9% / 57.0% Ajla / Viktorija · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 39%serve 54.9% / 57.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Ajla Tomljanovic's record against Viktorija Golubic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Ajla	Viktorija
Direction choice	−0.42 ±0.09 better than 1%	−0.29 ±0.09 better than 8%
Shot selection	−0.34 ±0.13 better than 19%	−0.97 ±0.19 better than 3%
Execution	+0.24 ±0.70 better than 70%	+0.87 ±0.49 better than 88%
Points left on the table	3.06 ±0.13 lower than 9%	2.93 ±0.14 lower than 14%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Ajla Tomljanovic +0.01, Viktorija Golubic +0.31. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Ajla Tomljanovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ajla wins	v Viktorija	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	64%	65%	63.2%±8.3	40%
Body	29%	55%	57%	54.5%±9.0	14% ▼
T	30%	72%	62%	66.7%±8.4	46% ▲

Optimal v Viktorija Golubic: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ajla wins	v Viktorija	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	60%	73%	68.1%±8.0	50% ▲
Body	23%	47%	55%	46.4%±10.4	8% ▼
T	37%	66%	67%	68.4%±7.8	42% ▲

Optimal v Viktorija Golubic: +1.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Viktorija Golubic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Viktorija wins	v Ajla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	54%	68%	55.8%±8.3	21% ▼
Body	34%	65%	59%	66.6%±8.3	49% ▲
T	30%	55%	77%	65.5%±9.2	30%

Optimal v Ajla Tomljanovic: +0.8±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Viktorija wins	v Ajla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	57%	77%	69.6%±8.2	49% ▲
Body	30%	54%	64%	62.3%±9.4	15% ▼
T	35%	60%	64%	59.4%±8.3	36%

Optimal v Ajla Tomljanovic: +0.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Ajla Tomljanovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Viktorija	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.2	−3.0	+1.0	+2.2±2.7
FH slice through the middle	20%	−6.7	+2.0	−1.0	−5.7±2.3
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	+2.6	+1.8	+5.9±4.7
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.3	−1.5	−2.4	+1.4±4.2
FH slice down the line	6%	−10.5	+0.4	±0.0	−10.1±2.2

Lean FH down the line: +5.8±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (312 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Viktorija	Value
BH through the middle	34%	+6.0	−2.0	+1.9	+5.9±2.6
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	−0.9	+1.5	+8.3±3.5
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	−0.9	+6.0	+7.3±4.5
BH slice through the middle	13%	−6.2	−0.6	−0.9	−7.7±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	−1.7	±0.0	−5.9±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Viktorija	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.2	−0.8	+2.5	−1.4±3.1
FH crosscourt	26%	+0.5	−1.0	−2.0	−2.5±4.3
FH down the line	23%	−0.6	±0.0	+5.4	+4.8±5.0

Lean FH down the line: +5.1±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Viktorija	Value
BH through the middle	54%	−2.6	−1.8	+0.1	−4.3±2.8
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.5	+0.9	−0.7	+1.7±3.6
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	−3.2	+0.5	−3.3±4.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (105 returns charted)

Viktorija Golubic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
FH through the middle	53%	+4.2	+2.0	+1.3	+7.4±2.7
FH crosscourt	16%	+5.3	−1.5	+1.6	+5.4±4.3
FH down the line	15%	+1.5	−0.3	−0.1	+1.1±4.7
FH slice through the middle	9%	−6.7	+0.9	+0.3	−5.5±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	−0.6	+0.8	−6.4±2.2

Lean FH through the middle: +3.5±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (280 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
BH through the middle	32%	+6.0	+0.1	−1.2	+5.0±2.6
BH slice through the middle	31%	−6.2	+2.1	−0.8	−4.9±2.4
BH crosscourt	15%	+7.7	+0.7	−3.0	+5.4±3.6
BH slice crosscourt	10%	−4.2	+0.9	+0.5	−2.8±2.5
BH down the line	8%	+2.2	−1.9	+2.8	+3.0±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (267 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
FH through the middle	67%	−3.2	+2.4	−0.6	−1.3±2.9
FH crosscourt	33%	+0.5	−0.4	−1.2	−1.0±3.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.2±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (48 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ajla	Value
BH through the middle	56%	−2.6	+2.0	+0.1	−0.5±2.8
BH crosscourt	25%	+1.5	+1.6	−1.8	+1.3±3.5
BH down the line	19%	−0.5	−1.8	+1.7	−0.6±5.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.3±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (135 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Ajla Tomljanovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+5.9±5.9	+0.3	+5.7
FH to their backhand · return	+4.6±5.7	−0.1	+4.8
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.6±4.8	+2.3	+1.3
FH to the middle · return +1	+3.5±3.1	+2.3	+1.2
BH to their forehand · rally	+2.5±5.6	+3.5	−1.0
FH to the middle · rally	+2.1±3.1	+1.4	+0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−10.7±5.9	−7.5	−3.3
BH to the middle · return	−6.6±3.4	−8.5	+1.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.2±5.4	−6.2	+1.1
BH to their backhand · return	−3.6±4.6	−5.0	+1.3
FH to the middle · serve +1	−3.6±3.5	−3.2	−0.3

Viktorija Golubic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+4.9±5.3	+1.4	+3.4
FH to the middle · return	+3.8±3.5	+3.6	+0.3
FH to the middle · return +1	+3.2±3.7	+3.4	−0.2
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.7±3.5	+2.8	−0.1
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.5±4.9	+2.4	+0.1
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.3±5.3	+0.3	+2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.4±6.3	−3.2	−3.2
BH to their backhand · return	−6.3±4.6	−1.5	−4.7
BH to their backhand · return +1	−2.4±4.8	−0.6	−1.8
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.1±4.5	+0.7	−2.8
FH to their backhand · return +1	−1.9±5.6	+0.9	−2.8

Against Viktorija Golubic-like opponents

Ajla Tomljanovic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	54.2%	39.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Jessica Pegula, Marie Bouzkova, Emma Navarro, Emma Raducanu, Lin Zhu, Zarina Diyas, Alize Cornet, Kateryna Baindl, R. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.