Game plan

Alex Molcan v Mohamed Safwat

Every number combines what Alex Molcan does well with what Mohamed Safwat allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alex Molcan wins, best of 3 52%90%: 20%–83% · best of 5: 53%

Serve points won 63.3% / 62.9% Alex / Mohamed · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 52%serve 63.3% / 62.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alex Molcan's record against Mohamed Safwat's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alex	Mohamed
Direction choice	−0.14 ±0.11 better than 20%	+0.13 ±0.09 better than 86%
Shot selection	−0.41 ±0.18 better than 17%	+0.36 ±0.07 better than 84%
Execution	+0.53 ±0.66 better than 85%	−2.40 ±0.94 better than 0%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alex Molcan serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alex wins	v Mohamed	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	28%	72%	68%	67.0%±11.6	41% ▲
Body	19%	61%	62%	59.5%±15.6	6% ▼
T	52%	66%	67%	56.3%±10.2	53%

Optimal v Mohamed Safwat: +0.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alex wins	v Mohamed	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	68%	66%	60.4%±10.0	42%
Body	13%	59%	58%	54.0%±16.0	0% ▼
T	45%	71%	75%	74.0%±10.2	58% ▲

Optimal v Mohamed Safwat: +1.2±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +8.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Mohamed Safwat serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Mohamed wins	v Alex	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	71%	71%	69.1%±9.5	33% ▼
Body	1%	64%	51%	51.3%±18.8	0% ▼
T	54%	70%	81%	77.1%±8.3	67% ▲

Optimal v Alex Molcan: +0.1±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Mohamed wins	v Alex	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	68%	77%	73.0%±9.8	40% ▼
Body	4%	61%	63%	61.2%±17.6	0% ▼
T	47%	68%	73%	68.8%±9.4	60% ▲

Optimal v Alex Molcan: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alex Molcan returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mohamed	Value
FH through the middle	34%	+4.3	±0.0	−1.6	+2.6±3.1
FH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	−0.8	−1.6	−6.6±2.1
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	+0.7	−2.0	+4.2±4.1
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	−1.2	−1.7	−1.3±4.2
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+0.8	±0.0	−3.6±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (177 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mohamed	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.4	+1.1	−2.0	+5.5±2.7
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	−2.6	−0.3	+5.9±3.1
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−0.4	−0.7	−5.3±2.2
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+2.8	−1.9	+5.2±4.6
BH slice down the line	10%	−8.4	−0.7	±0.0	−9.1±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.6±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (290 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mohamed	Value
FH crosscourt	50%	−0.2	−0.8	−2.0	−3.1±3.8
FH through the middle	38%	−3.5	±0.0	−1.6	−5.1±2.9
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	+1.1	−1.7	−2.4±3.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.7±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mohamed	Value
BH through the middle	66%	−2.9	+2.5	+0.3	±0.0±2.5
BH crosscourt	23%	+1.0	+1.8	−1.0	+1.8±2.8
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	+2.1	−2.1	−0.3±4.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.4±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (137 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Mohamed Safwat returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
FH through the middle	54%	+4.3	+0.9	−1.1	+4.0±3.0
FH crosscourt	28%	+5.5	+3.1	+1.3	+9.9±4.2
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	−2.9	−1.1	−2.4±3.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.3±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (74 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
BH through the middle	53%	+6.4	−1.0	+0.1	+5.5±2.7
BH crosscourt	37%	+8.8	−3.7	+2.7	+7.8±3.6
BH down the line	6%	+4.2	−1.8	−1.4	+1.0±4.0
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−0.2	+0.6	+0.9±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.9±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (134 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
BH through the middle	30%	−2.9	−0.2	+1.3	−1.8±2.4
BH crosscourt	29%	+1.0	−2.1	−0.8	−1.9±3.1
FH inside-out	13%	+1.0	+0.4	+2.1	+3.4±2.9
FH inside-in	11%	+0.6	−3.1	+0.8	−1.7±3.5
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−0.4	−4.2	−4.8±4.0

Lean BH through the middle: −0.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (56 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Alex Molcan

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.4±2.8	+3.0	+0.3
BH to the middle · return	+1.7±2.4	+2.3	−0.5
BH to their backhand · return	+0.1±3.5	+2.7	−2.6
BH to the middle · rally	±0.0±2.1	+1.0	−1.0
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.2±2.6	−1.3	±0.0
FH to the middle · return	−1.7±2.8	+0.5	−2.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.6±3.5	−1.9	−2.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.3±3.4	−1.7	−2.6
FH to the middle · return	−1.7±2.8	+0.5	−2.3
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.2±2.6	−1.3	±0.0
BH to the middle · rally	±0.0±2.1	+1.0	−1.0

Mohamed Safwat

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	+1.3±2.1	−0.3	+1.6
BH to the middle · return	+1.2±2.4	−0.2	+1.4
FH to the middle · return	−0.6±2.7	−0.5	−0.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.1±2.8	−2.6	+1.5
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−1.4±3.9	−1.2	−0.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.7±3.1	−1.5	−1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.6±3.5	−3.9	−1.6
BH to their backhand · return	−5.3±3.5	−2.5	−2.8
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.9±2.6	−1.6	−1.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.7±3.1	−1.5	−1.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−1.4±3.9	−1.2	−0.2

Against Mohamed Safwat-like opponents

Alex Molcan v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.5%	34.5%