Game plan

Alexandra Eala v Jasmine Paolini

Every number combines what Alexandra Eala does well with what Jasmine Paolini allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alexandra Eala wins, best of 3 14%90%: 2%–46% · best of 5: 9%

Serve points won 48.3% / 56.4% Alexandra / Jasmine · tour 57.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 14%serve 48.3% / 56.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Alexandra Eala's record against Jasmine Paolini's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alexandra	Jasmine
Direction choice	−0.02 ±0.07 better than 50%	−0.08 ±0.06 better than 39%
Shot selection	+0.35 ±0.15 better than 83%	+0.57 ±0.09 better than 96%
Execution	+0.51 ±0.45 better than 79%	+0.55 ±0.36 better than 81%
Points left on the table	2.89 ±0.13 lower than 16%	2.60 ±0.10 lower than 53%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Alexandra Eala +1.37, Jasmine Paolini +1.88. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alexandra Eala serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexandra wins	v Jasmine	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	30%	66%	65%	65.1%±6.6	45% ▲
Body	29%	56%	55%	54.2%±7.0	29%
T	41%	55%	67%	54.5%±6.5	26% ▼

Optimal v Jasmine Paolini: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexandra wins	v Jasmine	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	61%	60%	55.5%±6.3	54% ▲
Body	26%	55%	54%	52.3%±8.0	20% ▼
T	35%	62%	57%	55.1%±7.3	26% ▼

Optimal v Jasmine Paolini: +0.2±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Jasmine Paolini serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jasmine wins	v Alexandra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	64%	61%	59.1%±6.1	34%
Body	28%	57%	59%	58.3%±7.3	12% ▼
T	39%	62%	73%	67.9%±6.2	54% ▲

Optimal v Alexandra Eala: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jasmine wins	v Alexandra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	63%	64%	62.0%±6.1	33% ▼
Body	21%	57%	51%	51.8%±8.1	14% ▼
T	38%	68%	59%	62.7%±6.3	53% ▲

Optimal v Alexandra Eala: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alexandra Eala returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jasmine	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.2	+1.5	−0.3	+5.4±2.4
FH crosscourt	36%	+5.3	+2.3	−2.2	+5.4±3.8
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	+1.0	+0.2	+2.7±4.1
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	−0.4	−1.3	−8.3±2.4
FH slice through the middle	3%	−6.7	−0.5	±0.0	−7.2±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.7±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (342 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jasmine	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+1.3	+0.9	+8.3±2.0
BH crosscourt	37%	+7.7	+1.3	+3.5	+12.6±3.0
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	+3.2	+1.0	+6.4±3.8
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	+2.3	+0.6	−3.3±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−0.3	±0.0	−4.4±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (436 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jasmine	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.2	+2.3	+0.3	−0.6±2.9
FH down the line	33%	−0.6	+0.3	+1.5	+1.3±5.1
FH crosscourt	30%	+0.5	+1.6	+3.4	+5.6±4.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (134 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jasmine	Value
BH crosscourt	48%	+1.5	+1.7	+2.0	+5.1±3.4
BH through the middle	38%	−2.6	+0.9	+0.5	−1.2±2.4
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	+0.5	+0.2	+0.1±4.3
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−7.5	−1.9	±0.0	−9.4±1.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (222 returns charted)

Jasmine Paolini returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.2	+1.1	−2.1	+3.2±2.2
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	+2.9	+1.3	+9.6±3.7
FH down the line	18%	+1.5	+0.1	+0.6	+2.3±4.3
FH slice through the middle	5%	−6.7	−2.3	−0.4	−9.4±2.5
FH slice down the line	2%	−10.5	−0.3	−0.3	−11.1±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.9±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (824 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
BH through the middle	50%	+6.0	+2.4	+2.9	+11.4±2.0
BH crosscourt	25%	+7.7	+2.7	+5.8	+16.2±3.1
BH down the line	13%	+2.2	+0.5	+1.4	+4.1±4.5
BH slice through the middle	7%	−6.2	−3.3	+1.5	−8.0±2.5
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	−1.9	−2.4	−16.8±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.1±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (769 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.2	−0.7	−1.4	−5.3±2.9
FH crosscourt	34%	+0.5	−0.1	+3.2	+3.7±4.4
FH down the line	22%	−0.6	+1.6	+1.5	+2.6±5.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	−0.2	+1.2	−1.6±2.4
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.5	+0.8	−0.8	+1.5±3.4
BH down the line	12%	−0.5	−2.0	+0.7	−1.8±5.3
FH through the middle	5%	−2.7	+0.2	−1.4	−3.9±2.4
FH inside-out	3%	+1.4	+2.6	+1.5	+5.5±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.9±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (425 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Alexandra Eala

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+10.6±5.6	+7.0	+3.6
BH to the middle · return	+7.1±3.1	+4.0	+3.1
FH to their backhand · return	+6.7±5.5	+4.6	+2.1
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+6.1±5.0	+0.5	+5.6
FH to the middle · return	+5.1±3.6	+3.9	+1.3
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.8±6.0	+3.4	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−8.0±4.9	−2.2	−5.8
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.2±6.0	−0.4	−3.7
BH to the middle · rally	−2.2±3.0	±0.0	−2.2
BH to their forehand · rally	−1.4±5.7	+3.4	−4.7
FH to their forehand · return +1	−1.3±4.9	−3.9	+2.6

Jasmine Paolini

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	+11.4±5.1	+3.2	+8.2
BH to the middle · return	+7.9±3.2	+3.1	+4.8
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+7.2±5.4	+2.7	+4.5
FH to their forehand · return	+6.4±5.6	+6.5	−0.1
FH to their backhand · rally	+6.1±4.8	+2.5	+3.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+6.0±5.0	+0.7	+5.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.0±4.2	+2.2	−5.2
BH to the middle · rally	−2.7±2.9	−0.6	−2.1
BH to their forehand · return +1	−2.7±5.4	−2.9	+0.3
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.1±5.6	−3.9	+1.8
BH slice to the middle · rally	−2.1±2.8	−0.6	−1.5

Against Jasmine Paolini-like opponents

Alexandra Eala v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	54.2%	45.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Diana Shnaider, Bianca Andreescu, Maya Joint, Nadia Podoroska, Jaqueline Cristian, Maria Sakkari, Nao Hibino, Andrea Petkovic, Dominika Cibulkova. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.