Game plan

Anastasija Sevastova v Kayla Day

Every number combines what Anastasija Sevastova does well with what Kayla Day allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Anastasija Sevastova wins, best of 3 59%90%: 23%–88% · best of 5: 61%

Serve points won 60.7% / 59.0% Anastasija / Kayla · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 59%serve 60.7% / 59.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Anastasija Sevastova's record against Kayla Day's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Anastasija	Kayla
Direction choice	+0.24 ±0.10 better than 90%	−0.37 ±0.16 better than 3%
Shot selection	−0.25 ±0.17 better than 25%	−0.18 ±0.14 better than 29%
Execution	+0.04 ±0.48 better than 63%	+0.97 ±0.91 better than 91%
Points left on the table	2.23 ±0.13 lower than 91%	3.13 ±0.51 lower than 7%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Anastasija Sevastova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Anastasija wins	v Kayla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	66%	67%	67.0%±9.4	57% ▲
Body	15%	60%	60%	61.7%±11.8	0% ▼
T	39%	68%	68%	67.7%±12.3	43% ▲

Optimal v Kayla Day: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Anastasija wins	v Kayla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	58%	61%	53.8%±10.8	46%
Body	23%	52%	57%	52.4%±12.6	8% ▼
T	31%	61%	59%	55.5%±11.7	46% ▲

Optimal v Kayla Day: +0.6±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Kayla Day serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Kayla wins	v Anastasija	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	66%	68%	68.7%±10.8	50% ▲
Body	17%	56%	58%	57.0%±13.7	2% ▼
T	48%	71%	70%	73.0%±8.9	48%

Optimal v Anastasija Sevastova: +0.6±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Kayla wins	v Anastasija	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	61%	72%	67.5%±10.3	45%
Body	25%	61%	59%	64.0%±12.5	10% ▼
T	30%	65%	65%	65.4%±11.8	45% ▲

Optimal v Anastasija Sevastova: +0.4±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Anastasija Sevastova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kayla	Value
FH through the middle	38%	+4.2	+0.9	−1.6	+3.4±3.1
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.3	+1.0	−0.4	+5.9±4.0
FH slice through the middle	16%	−6.7	+0.6	+1.4	−4.7±2.3
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	+1.3	−1.2	+1.6±4.2
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−6.6	−1.4	±0.0	−8.0±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (228 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kayla	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.0	+0.6	+0.7	+7.3±2.9
BH crosscourt	30%	+7.7	−2.4	−0.4	+4.9±3.5
BH slice through the middle	15%	−6.2	−0.4	−0.4	−7.1±2.3
BH down the line	9%	+2.2	−0.8	−1.2	+0.2±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.2	+0.6	+0.8	−2.7±2.2

Lean BH through the middle: +4.4±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (247 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kayla	Value
BH crosscourt	51%	+1.5	−0.3	−0.1	+1.0±3.6
BH through the middle	39%	−2.6	+0.9	+2.1	+0.4±2.8
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	−0.4	+1.0	+0.1±4.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.3±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (133 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Kayla Day returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Anastasija	Value
FH crosscourt	42%	+5.3	+3.1	+0.8	+9.3±4.3
FH through the middle	36%	+4.2	+0.7	+1.6	+6.5±2.8
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	−0.8	−0.2	+0.5±4.0
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	+0.6	+0.8	−5.3±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (66 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Anastasija	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.0	+1.1	+1.9	+9.1±2.8
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	+1.0	+2.5	+11.2±3.5
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	−0.7	−0.2	+1.3±4.2
BH slice down the line	5%	−12.5	−0.3	−0.9	−13.7±2.4
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	+0.3	−0.7	−6.6±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (110 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Anastasija Sevastova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+12.3±5.6	+3.9	+8.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+5.6±6.2	+3.8	+1.9
BH to the middle · return	+1.7±3.6	+0.8	+0.9
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.4±4.4	−1.5	+2.9
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.2±5.9	+0.9	+0.4
BH to the middle · rally	−0.6±3.2	+0.4	−1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−8.0±4.6	−2.6	−5.5
FH to the middle · return	−2.6±4.2	−0.2	−2.4
FH to the middle · rally	−1.3±3.6	−1.1	−0.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.9±4.9	−2.1	+1.2
BH to the middle · rally	−0.6±3.2	+0.4	−1.0

Kayla Day

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+6.4±6.2	+4.4	+2.1
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.0±4.8	+2.8	+1.1
FH to their backhand · return	+3.4±6.3	+1.2	+2.2
BH to the middle · return	+3.0±3.7	+1.3	+1.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.8±5.8	+1.7	+1.1
FH to the middle · rally	+2.7±3.3	+1.7	+1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.7±4.8	−2.3	+3.1
FH to the middle · return	+0.8±3.9	+0.9	−0.1
BH to the middle · rally	+1.4±3.0	+0.3	+1.1
FH to the middle · rally	+2.7±3.3	+1.7	+1.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.8±5.8	+1.7	+1.1

Against Kayla Day-like opponents

Anastasija Sevastova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	54.9%	41.0%