Game plan

Arantxa Rus v Kim Clijsters

Every number combines what Arantxa Rus does well with what Kim Clijsters allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Arantxa Rus wins, best of 3 28%90%: 9%–55% · best of 5: 23%

Serve points won 53.5% / 58.0% Arantxa / Kim · tour 56.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 25%serve 53.2% / 58.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Arantxa Rus's record against Kim Clijsters's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +3.1 on serve, +3.2 on return vs expectation (280 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Arantxa	Kim
Direction choice	−0.45 ±0.06 better than 1%	+0.44 ±0.06 better than 98%
Shot selection	+0.06 ±0.09 better than 52%	−0.25 ±0.09 better than 24%
Execution	+0.02 ±0.34 better than 62%	+0.31 ±0.39 better than 73%
Points left on the table	3.21 ±0.11 lower than 5%	2.06 ±0.09 lower than 98%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Arantxa Rus serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Arantxa wins	v Kim	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	32%	64%	64%	62.0%±5.0	47% ▲
Body	28%	56%	56%	54.8%±6.6	13% ▼
T	40%	59%	64%	54.7%±5.0	40%

Optimal v Kim Clijsters: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Arantxa wins	v Kim	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	62%	62%	57.6%±4.9	36% ▼
Body	24%	57%	52%	53.4%±6.9	25%
T	24%	63%	61%	59.3%±5.7	39% ▲

Optimal v Kim Clijsters: +0.2±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Kim Clijsters serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Kim wins	v Arantxa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	67%	61%	61.6%±4.3	53% ▼
Body	9%	60%	55%	58.0%±7.5	0% ▼
T	32%	70%	69%	71.3%±5.2	47% ▲

Optimal v Arantxa Rus: +1.0±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Kim wins	v Arantxa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	66%	60%	61.4%±5.2	58% ▲
Body	12%	56%	56%	55.6%±7.0	0% ▼
T	44%	61%	64%	60.2%±5.0	42% ▼

Optimal v Arantxa Rus: +0.2±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Arantxa Rus returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kim	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.2	+2.7	−0.4	+6.5±1.9
FH down the line	27%	+1.5	+1.1	−1.9	+0.7±3.7
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.3	−0.5	+0.3	+5.1±3.6
FH slice through the middle	6%	−6.7	−3.6	+2.4	−8.0±2.5
FH slice down the line	2%	−10.5	−2.1	+0.5	−12.2±3.1

Lean FH through the middle: +3.3±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (711 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kim	Value
BH through the middle	54%	+6.0	+1.1	−0.8	+6.4±1.8
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	−3.4	−0.9	+3.4±3.2
BH down the line	19%	+2.2	−1.7	−2.9	−2.5±3.7
BH slice through the middle	3%	−6.2	−2.1	+1.7	−6.6±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	−1.8	−0.9	−6.8±2.8

Lean BH through the middle: +3.1±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1042 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kim	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.2	+1.7	−1.3	−2.8±2.6
FH crosscourt	30%	+0.5	+0.3	−0.5	+0.4±4.1
FH down the line	24%	−0.6	+0.4	−0.5	−0.7±4.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.7±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (236 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kim	Value
BH through the middle	42%	−2.6	+1.3	−0.4	−1.7±2.3
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.5	−3.1	+2.5	+0.9±3.6
FH through the middle	17%	−2.7	+1.2	−1.3	−2.8±2.3
BH down the line	8%	−0.5	−0.4	+0.2	−0.8±5.0
FH inside-in	8%	+0.7	−3.8	−0.5	−3.5±4.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.1±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (445 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Kim Clijsters returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
FH through the middle	38%	+4.2	+0.9	−0.2	+4.9±1.9
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	+0.8	+3.1	+9.2±3.3
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	+3.0	−3.5	+1.0±3.9
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	+0.3	−2.9	−9.3±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−6.6	+2.4	+1.7	−2.6±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (965 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	−0.5	+1.0	+6.5±1.7
BH crosscourt	33%	+7.7	−1.9	+3.1	+8.9±2.5
BH slice through the middle	11%	−6.2	−1.0	+1.0	−6.3±2.5
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	−2.5	−1.1	−1.5±4.1
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.2	−1.5	+0.7	−4.9±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (707 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
FH crosscourt	37%	+0.5	−1.1	−1.1	−1.7±3.8
FH through the middle	29%	−3.2	+0.6	+0.7	−1.8±2.5
FH down the line	21%	−0.6	−0.4	−3.2	−4.2±4.8
BH through the middle	6%	−1.0	+0.3	−0.5	−1.2±2.2
FH slice through the middle	4%	−15.2	+0.9	−0.4	−14.7±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: +1.7±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (311 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
BH crosscourt	51%	+1.5	+0.2	−2.4	−0.7±3.1
BH through the middle	35%	−2.6	−0.2	−0.5	−3.3±2.4
BH down the line	12%	−0.5	+0.8	−3.0	−2.7±5.2
BH slice through the middle	1%	−11.7	±0.0	±0.0	−11.6±1.2
FH inside-out	1%	+1.4	±0.0	−3.2	−1.8±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.3±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (555 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Arantxa Rus

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return +1	+3.9±1.9	+1.6	+2.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.8±2.3	+1.3	+1.5
FH to the middle · rally	+1.8±1.2	+1.3	+0.5
BH to the middle · return	+1.7±1.5	+2.3	−0.5
BH to the middle · rally	+1.3±1.1	+0.6	+0.7
BH to the middle · serve +1	+1.3±1.6	+0.3	+0.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−6.9±3.3	−0.3	−6.6
BH to their backhand · return +1	−6.8±2.6	−4.2	−2.5
BH to their backhand · return	−5.2±2.5	−3.8	−1.4
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.0±3.5	±0.0	−4.9
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.8±1.6	−3.2	−1.6

Kim Clijsters

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+4.3±5.8	+1.6	+2.7
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.7±3.8	+1.9	+0.8
BH to the middle · return	+2.2±1.3	−0.4	+2.6
BH to the middle · serve +1	+1.9±1.9	+0.6	+1.3
BH to their forehand · return +1	+1.8±3.8	−0.4	+2.3
BH to their forehand · return	+1.8±3.4	−1.1	+2.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	−6.0±2.3	−1.6	−4.4
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−4.2±5.8	−0.1	−4.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.0±1.4	−1.5	−2.5
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.0±2.3	−2.0	−2.0
FH to their backhand · return +1	−3.2±2.8	−3.1	−0.1

Against Kim Clijsters-like opponents

Arantxa Rus v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	56.3%	45.2%
Players most similar to Kim Clijsters	2	53.8%	40.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Anastasia Potapova, Karolina Pliskova, Anna Kalinskaya, Iga Swiatek, Belinda Bencic, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Maria Sharapova, Ana Ivanovic, Elena Dementieva, Jelena Dokic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.