Game plan
Arianne Hartono v Kristina Kucova
Every number combines what Arianne Hartono does well with what Kristina Kucova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Arianne Hartono's record against Kristina Kucova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Arianne Hartono serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Arianne wins | v Kristina | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 29% | 60% | 62% | 55.2%±13.4 | 44% ▲ |
| Body | 27% | 57% | 55% | 54.5%±10.8 | 12% ▼ |
| T | 44% | 60% | 63% | 55.1%±11.3 | 44% |
Optimal v Kristina Kucova: +0.2±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Arianne wins | v Kristina | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 35% | 62% | 63% | 59.6%±10.7 | 50% ▲ |
| Body | 26% | 55% | 45% | 44.4%±12.3 | 10% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 59% | 68% | 62.5%±12.8 | 40% |
Optimal v Kristina Kucova: +1.2±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Kristina Kucova serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Kristina wins | v Arianne | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 37% | 64% | 73% | 71.1%±9.7 | 53% ▲ |
| Body | 40% | 65% | 62% | 69.6%±10.1 | 25% ▼ |
| T | 23% | 63% | 71% | 66.5%±12.7 | 22% |
Optimal v Arianne Hartono: +0.4±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Kristina wins | v Arianne | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 33% | 66% | 60% | 59.8%±12.4 | 48% ▲ |
| Body | 39% | 58% | 60% | 62.0%±11.4 | 23% ▼ |
| T | 28% | 64% | 63% | 62.5%±11.8 | 29% |
Optimal v Arianne Hartono: +0.3±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Arianne Hartono returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Kristina | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.2 | −3.8 | +1.2 | +1.6±3.0 |
| FH crosscourt | 32% | +5.3 | −2.4 | −4.8 | −1.9±4.0 |
| FH down the line | 19% | +1.5 | −2.3 | +1.2 | +0.4±4.6 |
Lean FH through the middle: +1.3±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (281 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Kristina | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 42% | +6.0 | +1.2 | +1.4 | +8.6±2.9 |
| BH crosscourt | 26% | +7.7 | +1.2 | +0.6 | +9.5±3.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 12% | −6.2 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −7.1±1.7 |
| BH down the line | 12% | +2.2 | −0.1 | −3.0 | −1.0±4.2 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 5% | −4.2 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −3.8±1.7 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (234 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Kristina | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | −3.2 | −0.9 | +0.6 | −3.4±2.9 |
| FH crosscourt | 36% | +0.5 | −3.3 | +0.3 | −2.5±4.1 |
| FH down the line | 16% | −0.6 | −3.4 | +2.7 | −1.3±4.3 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +0.3±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (76 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Kristina | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 45% | +1.5 | −2.4 | ±0.0 | −0.9±3.3 |
| BH through the middle | 42% | −2.6 | −2.3 | +1.0 | −3.9±2.5 |
| BH down the line | 13% | −0.5 | −1.1 | −0.2 | −1.8±4.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +1.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (122 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Kristina Kucova returning
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Arianne | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 61% | +6.0 | +1.8 | −0.6 | +7.2±2.7 |
| BH crosscourt | 26% | +7.7 | +2.1 | +3.0 | +12.8±3.5 |
| BH down the line | 13% | +2.2 | +2.1 | −1.5 | +2.7±4.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +4.7±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (95 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Arianne Hartono
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return | +2.2±3.5 | −0.2 | +2.5 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +1.4±5.2 | +3.7 | −2.4 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −0.5±2.9 | −0.5 | −0.1 |
| FH to the middle · return | −1.4±3.7 | −3.1 | +1.7 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −2.5±2.9 | −3.3 | +0.8 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −2.7±3.3 | −0.7 | −1.9 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | −4.5±4.3 | −1.5 | −3.0 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −2.7±3.3 | −0.7 | −1.9 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −2.5±2.9 | −3.3 | +0.8 |
| FH to the middle · return | −1.4±3.7 | −3.1 | +1.7 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −0.5±2.9 | −0.5 | −0.1 |
Kristina Kucova
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | +4.3±3.8 | +3.3 | +1.0 |
| FH to the middle · return | +4.2±3.6 | +2.3 | +1.9 |
| BH to the middle · return | +3.6±3.4 | +3.3 | +0.3 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +3.1±5.3 | +0.8 | +2.3 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +1.7±3.0 | +1.8 | −0.1 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −0.3±3.3 | +0.7 | −1.0 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · rally | −4.1±6.4 | +1.1 | −5.2 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −2.3±4.2 | −2.3 | ±0.0 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −0.3±3.3 | +0.7 | −1.0 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +1.7±3.0 | +1.8 | −0.1 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +3.1±5.3 | +0.8 | +2.3 |
Against Kristina Kucova-like opponents
| Arianne Hartono v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 52.5% | 42.6% |