Game plan

Arthur Cazaux v Victor Pecci

Every number combines what Arthur Cazaux does well with what Victor Pecci allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Arthur Cazaux serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Arthur wins	v Victor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	72%	75%	74.8%±10.5	59% ▲
Body	5%	60%	59%	55.5%±17.7	0% ▼
T	49%	78%	79%	81.2%±11.3	41% ▼

Optimal v Victor Pecci: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Arthur wins	v Victor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	72%	73%	72.1%±13.3	67% ▲
Body	3%	69%	58%	64.4%±17.3	3%
T	43%	71%	67%	65.5%±13.1	30% ▼

Optimal v Victor Pecci: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Victor Pecci serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Victor wins	v Arthur	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	32%	77%	73%	76.6%±12.1	45% ▲
Body	8%	62%	66%	64.5%±17.4	0% ▼
T	60%	70%	79%	74.2%±12.3	55% ▼

Optimal v Arthur Cazaux: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Victor wins	v Arthur	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	78%	66%	75%	68.4%±12.8	67% ▼
Body	2%	64%	65%	66.2%±17.9	0% ▼
T	20%	67%	80%	75.9%±12.2	33% ▲

Optimal v Arthur Cazaux: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Arthur Cazaux returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victor	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	±0.0	+0.9	+5.1±2.6
FH down the line	28%	+1.7	−3.8	±0.0	−2.1±3.2
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−0.9	±0.0	−5.1±1.6
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	−3.4	±0.0	+2.1±2.9
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+0.5	±0.0	−3.7±1.8

Lean FH through the middle: +4.3±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (243 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victor	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	+1.0	±0.0	+7.4±2.5
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	−0.7	+2.1	+10.2±3.1
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	−2.9	±0.0	+1.3±3.2
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−1.6	−0.2	−6.0±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−2.1	±0.0	−1.6±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.8±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (204 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victor	Value
FH through the middle	53%	−3.5	+1.3	+0.3	−1.9±2.7
FH down the line	37%	−1.8	+0.1	−0.4	−2.1±3.7
FH crosscourt	10%	−0.2	−2.8	+1.5	−1.5±3.2

Lean FH through the middle: ±0.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (60 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victor	Value
BH through the middle	53%	−2.9	+1.2	±0.0	−1.6±1.8
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	−1.3	±0.0	−0.3±2.3
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−1.5	±0.0	−1.7±2.9
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.6	+0.3	−2.0±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.9±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (172 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Victor Pecci returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
FH slice through the middle	39%	−4.2	+1.2	+0.7	−2.3±2.2
FH through the middle	30%	+4.3	−0.7	−2.8	+0.8±2.8
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	+1.3	+1.5	+8.3±3.8
FH slice down the line	11%	−4.3	+1.0	−1.0	−4.2±2.1

Lean FH slice through the middle: −2.9±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (44 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Arthur Cazaux

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.2±3.5	+1.4	+2.8
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.2±2.6	+2.4	−0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.2±2.6	+2.4	−0.2
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.2±3.5	+1.4	+2.8

Victor Pecci

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.8±3.3	±0.0	+2.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.8±3.3	±0.0	+2.8

Against Victor Pecci-like opponents

Arthur Cazaux v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.6%	31.5%