Game plan

Ashlyn Krueger v Helena Sukova

Every number combines what Ashlyn Krueger does well with what Helena Sukova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Ashlyn Krueger wins, best of 3 71%90%: 37%–92% · best of 5: 75%

Serve points won 60.6% / 56.3% Ashlyn / Helena · tour 56.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 71%serve 60.6% / 56.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Ashlyn Krueger's record against Helena Sukova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Ashlyn	Helena
Direction choice	+0.02 ±0.08 better than 57%	+0.12 ±0.30 better than 76%
Shot selection	+0.13 ±0.12 better than 59%	+0.20 ±0.33 better than 66%
Execution	−0.34 ±0.51 better than 40%	−1.46 ±0.74 better than 11%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Ashlyn Krueger serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ashlyn wins	v Helena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	34%	61%	65%	60.3%±9.7	34%
Body	27%	54%	61%	57.2%±11.7	12% ▼
T	39%	76%	75%	81.7%±6.6	54% ▲

Optimal v Helena Sukova: +1.8±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +14.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ashlyn wins	v Helena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	66%	65%	65.2%±8.9	32%
Body	18%	52%	55%	50.6%±14.0	2% ▼
T	51%	68%	68%	72.1%±9.2	66% ▲

Optimal v Helena Sukova: +1.4±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Helena Sukova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Helena wins	v Ashlyn	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	68%	66%	67.8%±8.8	54% ▲
Body	10%	57%	59%	58.2%±13.5	0% ▼
T	46%	61%	69%	61.7%±10.2	46%

Optimal v Ashlyn Krueger: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Helena wins	v Ashlyn	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	61%	65%	60.2%±9.8	30% ▼
Body	9%	66%	59%	69.2%±13.2	9%
T	46%	71%	63%	70.3%±9.7	61% ▲

Optimal v Ashlyn Krueger: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Ashlyn Krueger returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Helena	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.2	−2.4	+0.6	+2.3±2.9
FH crosscourt	32%	+5.3	−0.8	+1.3	+5.8±3.9
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	+0.6	+1.3	−4.8±2.2
FH down the line	8%	+1.5	−0.2	+1.4	+2.8±4.5
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	+1.0	±0.0	−5.6±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (422 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Helena	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.0	+0.7	−2.4	+4.3±2.8
BH crosscourt	26%	+7.7	+2.3	+0.9	+10.9±3.4
BH slice through the middle	14%	−6.2	+1.4	−0.7	−5.5±2.6
BH down the line	8%	+2.2	+1.4	−1.2	+2.3±3.9
BH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.2	+0.5	+2.2	−1.5±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.0±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (337 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Helena	Value
FH crosscourt	47%	+0.5	+4.7	+1.1	+6.3±4.4
FH through the middle	47%	−3.2	−0.3	−0.9	−4.4±3.1
FH down the line	6%	−0.6	−1.0	+0.5	−1.1±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (81 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Helena	Value
BH through the middle	50%	−2.6	−1.7	+0.5	−3.8±2.6
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.5	−0.9	+1.9	+2.5±3.5
BH down the line	16%	−0.5	+0.1	−0.7	−1.1±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (135 returns charted)

Helena Sukova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ashlyn	Value
FH through the middle	33%	+4.2	−2.5	+1.7	+3.3±2.8
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	+1.3	+0.9	+7.5±4.3
FH down the line	21%	+1.5	+1.7	−2.8	+0.4±4.3
FH slice through the middle	15%	−6.7	+0.9	−1.0	−6.7±2.4
FH slice down the line	5%	−10.5	+0.4	−0.4	−10.5±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.8±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (102 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ashlyn	Value
BH slice through the middle	37%	−6.2	+1.4	−2.8	−7.6±2.5
BH slice down the line	20%	−12.5	+3.4	−0.2	−9.2±2.9
BH slice crosscourt	17%	−4.2	+2.6	+1.3	−0.3±2.9
BH through the middle	14%	+6.0	−0.8	+0.1	+5.4±2.6
BH crosscourt	7%	+7.7	−1.4	−2.2	+4.1±3.2

Lean BH through the middle: +8.8±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (175 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ashlyn	Value
FH crosscourt	40%	+0.5	+1.6	−2.1	+0.1±4.2
FH down the line	33%	−0.6	+1.2	−4.9	−4.2±4.8
FH through the middle	28%	−3.2	−2.2	+0.1	−5.3±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.9±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ashlyn	Value
BH slice crosscourt	31%	−7.5	−0.5	±0.0	−8.0±1.9
BH slice through the middle	29%	−11.7	+0.2	±0.0	−11.4±1.6
BH slice down the line	21%	−10.6	+0.4	±0.0	−10.2±2.6
FH inside-out	10%	+1.4	−1.1	−4.9	−4.6±3.6
BH down the line	9%	−0.5	+1.5	−2.0	−1.0±4.3

Lean BH slice crosscourt: +0.5±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (70 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Ashlyn Krueger

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−2.2±2.7	−1.2	−1.1
BH to the middle · return	−3.2±2.5	−1.9	−1.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.5±3.4	−1.4	−2.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.5±3.4	−1.4	−2.1
BH to the middle · return	−3.2±2.5	−1.9	−1.3
FH to the middle · return	−2.2±2.7	−1.2	−1.1

Helena Sukova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+1.5±4.4	+2.1	−0.6
FH to the middle · return	−2.1±2.6	−3.0	+0.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−2.1±2.6	−3.0	+0.9
FH to their forehand · return	+1.5±4.4	+2.1	−0.6

Against Helena Sukova-like opponents

Ashlyn Krueger v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.5%	41.7%