Game plan

Barbora Strycova v Taylor Townsend

Every number combines what Barbora Strycova does well with what Taylor Townsend allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Barbora Strycova wins, best of 3 39%90%: 7%–82% · best of 5: 37%

Serve points won 54.0% / 56.0% Barbora / Taylor · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 39%serve 54.0% / 56.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Barbora Strycova's record against Taylor Townsend's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Barbora	Taylor
Direction choice	±0.00 ±0.10 better than 53%	+0.03 ±0.07 better than 60%
Shot selection	−0.31 ±0.25 better than 21%	+0.29 ±0.38 better than 78%
Execution	−0.18 ±0.48 better than 52%	−0.66 ±0.65 better than 28%
Points left on the table	2.69 ±0.11 lower than 35%	3.14 ±0.14 lower than 6%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Barbora Strycova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Barbora wins	v Taylor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	67%	67%	68.4%±8.4	50% ▲
Body	25%	59%	54%	56.0%±10.5	10% ▼
T	40%	70%	73%	74.2%±8.2	40%

Optimal v Taylor Townsend: +1.0±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Barbora wins	v Taylor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	69%	70%	72.8%±8.8	48% ▲
Body	22%	52%	64%	60.8%±11.3	8% ▼
T	45%	57%	64%	56.4%±8.6	44%

Optimal v Taylor Townsend: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +10.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Taylor Townsend serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Taylor wins	v Barbora	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	64%	69%	67.2%±8.7	51% ▲
Body	24%	55%	61%	58.7%±10.6	8% ▼
T	41%	65%	65%	61.9%±8.7	41%

Optimal v Barbora Strycova: +0.4±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Taylor wins	v Barbora	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	69%	65%	68.4%±8.4	59% ▲
Body	16%	58%	61%	62.8%±11.5	7% ▼
T	40%	62%	61%	58.1%±9.6	34% ▼

Optimal v Barbora Strycova: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Barbora Strycova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
FH slice through the middle	37%	−6.7	+3.5	+0.6	−2.6±2.6
FH through the middle	32%	+4.2	+0.4	−1.3	+3.3±3.0
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.3	−0.8	±0.0	+4.6±4.2
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+2.2	+1.2	−3.2±2.5
FH slice down the line	5%	−10.5	+0.3	+0.1	−10.2±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.5±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
BH through the middle	33%	+6.0	+2.9	−1.1	+7.8±2.7
BH slice through the middle	29%	−6.2	+1.4	−1.2	−6.0±2.5
BH crosscourt	15%	+7.7	+2.3	+0.9	+10.9±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	10%	−4.2	+1.5	+0.2	−2.4±2.5
BH down the line	8%	+2.2	+3.4	−0.2	+5.3±4.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.9±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (164 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
FH through the middle	57%	−3.2	+1.1	+0.4	−1.7±3.0
FH crosscourt	19%	+0.5	+1.1	+0.8	+2.5±4.0
FH down the line	14%	−0.6	+3.1	+2.6	+5.1±4.6
FH slice through the middle	10%	−15.2	+1.2	±0.0	−14.0±1.1

Lean FH through the middle: −0.6±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (63 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Taylor	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.5	−1.1	−0.2	+0.2±3.5
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	±0.0	−0.3	−2.9±2.6
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	+0.9	+1.2	+1.5±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.3±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (49 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Taylor Townsend returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
FH through the middle	31%	+4.2	−1.2	+3.1	+6.1±3.0
FH slice through the middle	25%	−6.7	−0.2	−0.7	−7.7±2.5
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.3	+1.9	+3.0	+10.2±4.3
FH slice crosscourt	16%	−6.6	+2.4	+1.3	−2.9±2.4
FH down the line	8%	+1.5	−2.5	+1.2	+0.3±4.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +8.7±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (190 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
BH through the middle	30%	+6.0	−0.2	+1.0	+6.8±2.8
BH slice through the middle	21%	−6.2	+2.4	+0.9	−2.9±2.4
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	−3.2	−2.5	+2.0±3.6
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	±0.0	−1.8	+0.4±4.7
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	+0.1	−0.7	−4.8±2.5

Lean BH through the middle: +5.9±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (385 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
FH crosscourt	49%	+0.5	+2.0	+2.0	+4.6±4.1
FH through the middle	34%	−3.2	−0.1	+2.7	−0.6±2.9
FH down the line	17%	−0.6	−1.2	+1.8	±0.0±4.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (41 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	−0.4	−0.4	−3.4±2.7
BH crosscourt	37%	+1.5	−3.4	−0.4	−2.3±3.7
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	+0.2	−2.8	−3.1±4.9
FH through the middle	6%	−2.7	−1.0	+2.7	−0.9±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.5±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Barbora Strycova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+6.1±5.2	+3.0	+3.2
BH to their forehand · rally	+6.0±5.4	−0.3	+6.3
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.2±4.4	+1.7	+1.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.8±4.8	+1.0	+0.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.8±5.3	+1.8	±0.0
BH to their backhand · return	+1.7±3.6	+0.5	+1.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.7±5.1	−2.0	−3.7
BH to the middle · serve +1	−2.4±3.1	−1.3	−1.1
FH to the middle · rally	−1.8±3.1	−0.2	−1.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.6±5.0	−0.3	−1.2
BH to the middle · rally	−1.5±2.8	+0.4	−1.9

Taylor Townsend

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	+6.7±5.1	+3.0	+3.7
BH to their forehand · rally	+5.1±5.9	−0.6	+5.7
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.9±5.6	+4.0	+0.9
FH to the middle · return	+2.5±3.3	−1.3	+3.8
FH to the middle · rally	+2.2±3.0	+0.7	+1.5
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.5±4.4	−1.0	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−8.0±4.7	−5.4	−2.7
BH to their forehand · return	−6.3±5.1	−4.1	−2.1
BH to their backhand · return	−4.0±4.2	−0.7	−3.2
BH to the middle · rally	−3.1±3.3	−2.1	−1.0
FH to their forehand · return +1	−3.0±5.3	−3.9	+0.9

Against Taylor Townsend-like opponents

Barbora Strycova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	55.5%	42.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Karolina Muchova, Bianca Andreescu, Barbora Krejcikova, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Olivia Gadecki, Xiyu Wang, Caroline Garcia, Anna Lena Friedsam, Johanna Konta. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.