Game plan

Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Andrei Cherkasov

Every number combines what Camilo Ugo Carabelli does well with what Andrei Cherkasov allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins, best of 3 64%90%: 25%–92% · best of 5: 67%

Serve points won 57.3% / 54.6% Camilo / Andrei · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 64%serve 57.3% / 54.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Camilo Ugo Carabelli's record against Andrei Cherkasov's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Camilo wins	v Andrei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	75%	69%	71.2%±10.9	44% ▲
Body	28%	62%	59%	56.7%±14.9	15% ▼
T	41%	68%	67%	59.1%±14.4	41%

Optimal v Andrei Cherkasov: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +9.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Camilo wins	v Andrei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	68%	72%	67.3%±12.0	43% ▲
Body	14%	59%	65%	61.8%±16.8	1% ▼
T	52%	67%	72%	67.0%±13.5	56% ▲

Optimal v Andrei Cherkasov: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Andrei Cherkasov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Andrei wins	v Camilo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	63%	70%	59.7%±11.5	53% ▼
Body	11%	63%	67%	67.3%±15.2	0% ▼
T	34%	66%	74%	64.9%±13.1	47% ▲

Optimal v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Andrei wins	v Camilo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	30%	69%	67%	63.5%±14.3	22% ▼
Body	20%	57%	58%	51.8%±16.9	15% ▼
T	50%	66%	71%	65.4%±12.1	63% ▲

Optimal v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
FH through the middle	39%	+4.3	±0.0	−0.3	+4.0±3.1
FH slice through the middle	25%	−4.2	−1.2	±0.0	−5.4±1.6
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−2.2	+0.9	+0.4±4.3
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	+0.1	+2.3	+7.9±3.5
FH slice down the line	8%	−4.3	−1.2	±0.0	−5.4±1.7

Lean FH through the middle: +3.6±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (137 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	+1.5	+0.8	+8.7±2.8
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	+0.5	+0.3	+9.6±3.5
BH down the line	21%	+4.2	−0.4	+2.6	+6.4±4.1
BH slice down the line	3%	−8.4	+0.2	±0.0	−8.2±1.6
BH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.4	+1.2	−2.6±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (172 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
FH through the middle	65%	−3.5	−0.6	+1.7	−2.4±2.7
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	+0.2	+0.4	−1.2±3.9
FH crosscourt	16%	−0.2	+0.9	+1.5	+2.2±3.0

Lean FH through the middle: −1.0±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	±0.0	+1.7	+2.7±2.8
BH through the middle	22%	−2.9	−2.0	+0.8	−4.0±2.1
FH through the middle	19%	−2.9	+0.2	+1.7	−0.9±2.1
FH inside-out	18%	+1.0	+1.0	+0.4	+2.4±3.4
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−3.6	−0.6	−4.4±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (94 returns charted)

Andrei Cherkasov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Camilo	Value
FH down the line	62%	+1.7	+4.9	+0.3	+6.9±4.5
FH through the middle	30%	+4.3	−0.4	−0.3	+3.5±2.9
FH crosscourt	8%	+5.5	−1.0	+2.2	+6.7±3.6

Lean FH down the line: +1.0±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (60 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Camilo	Value
BH down the line	46%	+4.2	+0.6	−1.4	+3.4±4.4
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+0.8	−1.0	+6.2±2.7
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	+0.4	−0.9	+8.3±3.0

Lean BH through the middle: +1.0±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (50 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Camilo	Value
BH through the middle	52%	−2.9	+2.2	+0.6	±0.0±2.6
BH down the line	28%	−0.2	+1.1	−0.7	+0.2±4.5
BH crosscourt	12%	+1.0	−0.7	−0.9	−0.6±2.8
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.4	−0.5	−3.1±2.0

Lean BH down the line: +0.5±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.2±4.2	+0.9	+2.3
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.4±3.5	+1.2	−0.9
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.1±4.7	+2.7	−2.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.1±4.7	+2.7	−2.8
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.4±3.5	+1.2	−0.9
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.2±4.2	+0.9	+2.3

Andrei Cherkasov

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+2.6±3.6	+1.9	+0.7
BH to their forehand · rally	+0.8±6.2	+4.7	−3.8
BH to the middle · rally	+0.1±3.1	+1.4	−1.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.2±4.5	−1.1	−1.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.7±3.4	−1.6	−1.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−3.0±4.1	−0.4	−2.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−3.0±4.1	−0.4	−2.5
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.7±3.4	−1.6	−1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.2±4.5	−1.1	−1.1
BH to the middle · rally	+0.1±3.1	+1.4	−1.3
BH to their forehand · rally	+0.8±6.2	+4.7	−3.8

Against Andrei Cherkasov-like opponents

Camilo Ugo Carabelli v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.6%	39.9%