Game plan

Carla Suarez Navarro v Varvara Gracheva

Every number combines what Carla Suarez Navarro does well with what Varvara Gracheva allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Carla Suarez Navarro wins, best of 3 71%90%: 32%–94% · best of 5: 75%

Serve points won 55.3% / 51.3% Carla / Varvara · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 72%serve 55.2% / 50.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Carla Suarez Navarro's record against Varvara Gracheva's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.0 on serve, −2.1 on return vs expectation (532 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Carla	Varvara
Direction choice	−0.14 ±0.09 better than 28%	+0.06 ±0.12 better than 65%
Shot selection	−0.42 ±0.14 better than 16%	+0.04 ±0.19 better than 49%
Execution	+0.22 ±0.49 better than 69%	−0.42 ±0.65 better than 37%
Points left on the table	2.63 ±0.13 lower than 46%	2.32 ±0.17 lower than 84%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Carla Suarez Navarro serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Carla wins	v Varvara	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	62%	65%	60.9%±7.4	42%
Body	28%	54%	51%	48.1%±9.1	13% ▼
T	30%	65%	66%	63.9%±8.9	45% ▲

Optimal v Varvara Gracheva: +0.8±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Carla wins	v Varvara	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	23%	63%	62%	59.2%±8.9	38% ▲
Body	35%	57%	60%	60.9%±9.0	34%
T	43%	56%	66%	57.7%±8.3	28% ▼

Optimal v Varvara Gracheva: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Varvara Gracheva serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Varvara wins	v Carla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	64%	69%	66.9%±7.2	42% ▲
Body	30%	52%	62%	57.1%±9.1	15% ▼
T	30%	64%	70%	65.8%±8.2	43% ▲

Optimal v Carla Suarez Navarro: +0.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Varvara wins	v Carla	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	60%	65%	58.9%±8.8	50% ▲
Body	27%	48%	59%	50.5%±10.1	12% ▼
T	38%	56%	71%	62.7%±8.1	38%

Optimal v Carla Suarez Navarro: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Carla Suarez Navarro returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Varvara	Value
FH through the middle	50%	+4.2	+0.2	+3.3	+7.7±2.5
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.3	−3.5	−2.1	−0.3±4.3
FH down the line	13%	+1.5	+1.8	+1.1	+4.5±4.7
FH slice through the middle	12%	−6.7	+0.1	+2.4	−4.2±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−6.6	+1.5	+0.3	−4.8±2.2

Lean FH through the middle: +4.3±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (555 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Varvara	Value
BH through the middle	37%	+6.0	+0.3	+0.3	+6.6±2.5
BH slice through the middle	21%	−6.2	−0.2	+0.7	−5.7±2.3
BH crosscourt	18%	+7.7	−1.5	+0.8	+7.0±3.5
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−3.4	−0.1	−1.3±4.7
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	+0.6	±0.0	−3.6±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.7±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (567 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Varvara	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.2	+1.2	+0.6	−1.3±3.1
FH down the line	27%	−0.6	−3.4	+0.5	−3.5±5.2
FH crosscourt	21%	+0.5	±0.0	+3.2	+3.7±4.3
FH slice through the middle	4%	−15.2	+0.2	±0.0	−15.0±1.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.2±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (120 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Varvara	Value
BH through the middle	37%	−2.6	+0.3	−0.1	−2.3±2.6
BH crosscourt	27%	+1.5	−1.4	−1.1	−1.0±3.6
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	+0.6	−2.5	−2.4±5.2
FH through the middle	8%	−2.7	−0.6	+0.6	−2.6±2.6
FH inside-in	7%	+0.7	+2.0	+3.2	+5.9±4.6

Lean FH inside-in: +7.9±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (345 returns charted)

Varvara Gracheva returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carla	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.2	+1.0	+1.6	+6.7±2.5
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.3	+0.4	+3.9	+9.6±4.1
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	−1.7	+0.7	+0.6±4.4
FH slice through the middle	9%	−6.7	−0.7	+0.2	−7.2±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	+1.0	+0.4	−5.2±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.5±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (223 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carla	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	+0.8	±0.0	+6.9±2.4
BH crosscourt	32%	+7.7	+2.2	−3.5	+6.4±3.4
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−0.7	+0.5	+1.9±4.3
BH slice through the middle	9%	−6.2	−0.6	+1.0	−5.8±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	7%	−4.2	+0.1	−1.1	−5.2±2.6

Lean BH through the middle: +2.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (183 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carla	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.2	−0.3	−0.4	−3.8±2.7
FH crosscourt	41%	+0.5	−1.5	+1.2	+0.2±4.1
FH down the line	15%	−0.6	+2.8	+0.5	+2.8±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.4±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (41 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carla	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	+0.2	−0.6	−3.0±2.6
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	+1.4	−2.5	+0.4±3.4
BH down the line	16%	−0.5	−0.9	+2.1	+0.7±4.9

Lean BH down the line: +1.8±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (99 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Carla Suarez Navarro

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+7.7±5.3	+1.3	+6.4
FH to the middle · serve +1	+4.5±3.3	+3.4	+1.1
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.7±3.7	+1.3	+2.4
BH to the middle · return	+3.2±3.0	+0.7	+2.5
FH to their forehand · return +1	+3.0±4.4	+1.2	+1.8
FH to the middle · return	+2.8±3.3	−0.3	+3.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−14.3±6.5	−10.9	−3.4
BH to their backhand · return	−3.6±4.2	−0.9	−2.8
BH to their forehand · return	−3.6±5.4	−1.6	−2.0
BH to the middle · return +1	−2.9±2.9	−3.0	+0.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.5±4.8	−3.1	+0.6

Varvara Gracheva

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	+4.6±4.4	+1.4	+3.3
FH to the middle · return	+4.0±3.3	+2.5	+1.4
FH to their forehand · return	+3.3±4.7	−0.4	+3.8
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.7±5.6	+1.0	+0.7
BH to the middle · return	+0.9±3.1	+0.4	+0.5
FH to their forehand · return +1	+0.8±5.1	+1.1	−0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	−7.1±4.2	−0.8	−6.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.7±5.0	−2.9	−3.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.6±4.1	−4.2	−1.4
BH to their forehand · rally	−2.9±5.5	−3.2	+0.2
BH to the middle · rally	−2.7±2.8	−3.2	+0.6

Against Varvara Gracheva-like opponents

Carla Suarez Navarro v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	54.2%	40.4%
Players most similar to Varvara Gracheva	4	54.5%	39.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Iva Jovic, Anastasia Potapova, Anna Blinkova, Iga Swiatek, Kimberly Birrell, Emma Raducanu, Yue Yuan, Eugenie Bouchard, R, Andrea Petkovic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.