Game plan

Caroline Wozniacki v Magdalena Rybarikova

Every number combines what Caroline Wozniacki does well with what Magdalena Rybarikova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Caroline Wozniacki wins, best of 3 100%90%: 98%–100% · best of 5: 100%

Serve points won 63.6% / 43.2% Caroline / Magdalena · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 99%serve 61.8% / 44.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Caroline Wozniacki's record against Magdalena Rybarikova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +7.5 on serve, +3.5 on return vs expectation (676 points); head-to-head: +7.5 on serve, +6.0 on return vs expectation (200 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Caroline	Magdalena
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.05 better than 59%	−0.24 ±0.20 better than 12%
Shot selection	+0.06 ±0.06 better than 52%	−0.43 ±0.35 better than 14%
Execution	+2.22 ±0.16 better than 100%	+0.07 ±0.86 better than 64%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Caroline Wozniacki serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Caroline wins	v Magdalena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	67%	74%	75.4%±7.7	57% ▲
Body	25%	62%	66%	70.4%±9.3	15% ▼
T	33%	71%	63%	65.7%±9.2	28% ▼

Optimal v Magdalena Rybarikova: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Caroline wins	v Magdalena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	68%	63%	65.2%±9.0	35%
Body	24%	59%	53%	55.4%±10.1	9% ▼
T	41%	63%	70%	69.0%±8.9	56% ▲

Optimal v Magdalena Rybarikova: +0.8±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Magdalena Rybarikova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Magdalena wins	v Caroline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	58%	60%	51.6%±8.5	53%
Body	20%	57%	50%	49.8%±11.2	5% ▼
T	27%	67%	63%	61.3%±11.1	42% ▲

Optimal v Caroline Wozniacki: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Magdalena wins	v Caroline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	67%	60%	61.4%±10.4	53% ▲
Body	15%	58%	47%	48.9%±12.2	0% ▼
T	47%	54%	59%	47.5%±9.0	47%

Optimal v Caroline Wozniacki: +1.0±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +8.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Caroline Wozniacki returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magdalena	Value
FH through the middle	52%	+4.2	+3.4	+2.3	+9.8±2.3
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.3	+3.9	+0.2	+9.5±3.1
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	+6.2	+2.6	+10.3±3.3
FH slice through the middle	7%	−6.7	−1.5	+0.1	−8.1±2.0
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	−1.7	±0.0	−8.3±2.0

Lean FH down the line: +2.5±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2852 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magdalena	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.0	+2.8	−2.1	+6.8±2.3
BH crosscourt	36%	+7.7	+4.0	+0.6	+12.2±2.6
BH slice through the middle	9%	−6.2	−1.9	−0.8	−8.9±2.1
BH down the line	5%	+2.2	+5.0	+2.0	+9.1±4.2
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	−2.1	±0.0	−14.6±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1809 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magdalena	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.2	+3.7	+0.9	+1.4±2.0
FH down the line	29%	−0.6	+2.5	±0.0	+2.0±2.7
FH crosscourt	26%	+0.5	+3.0	±0.0	+3.5±2.3
BH inside-out	1%	+2.2	+0.3	+1.6	+4.1±3.6
BH through the middle	1%	−1.0	−0.3	+0.8	−0.4±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.6±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (983 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Magdalena	Value
BH crosscourt	54%	+1.5	+3.5	+3.5	+8.5±3.0
BH through the middle	35%	−2.6	+4.1	+0.8	+2.3±2.4
BH down the line	12%	−0.5	+2.0	+1.6	+3.1±4.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (834 returns charted)

Magdalena Rybarikova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
FH down the line	30%	+1.5	+2.7	+3.6	+7.8±3.7
FH through the middle	30%	+4.2	−2.0	+0.9	+3.0±2.3
FH slice through the middle	25%	−6.7	−0.5	+0.3	−6.9±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−6.6	+0.5	−1.1	−7.2±2.4
FH crosscourt	7%	+5.3	+0.2	+1.4	+6.9±2.4

Lean FH down the line: +6.3±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (89 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
BH through the middle	63%	+6.0	+0.4	±0.0	+6.5±2.2
BH crosscourt	21%	+7.7	+2.8	+1.2	+11.7±2.6
BH slice through the middle	17%	−6.2	+0.4	−1.3	−7.2±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.4±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.