Game plan
Clara Burel v Emiliana Arango
Every number combines what Clara Burel does well with what Emiliana Arango allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Clara Burel serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Clara wins | v Emiliana | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 53% | 56% | 62% | 51.9%±12.6 | 53% |
| Body | 27% | 50% | 57% | 49.4%±14.1 | 12% ▼ |
| T | 20% | 69% | 71% | 72.6%±12.6 | 35% ▲ |
Optimal v Emiliana Arango: +0.8±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +17.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Clara wins | v Emiliana | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 40% | 66% | 65% | 65.0%±12.0 | 41% |
| Body | 21% | 54% | 60% | 57.7%±15.6 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 39% | 61% | 64% | 60.9%±13.2 | 54% ▲ |
Optimal v Emiliana Arango: +0.9±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Emiliana Arango serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Emiliana wins | v Clara | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 40% | 60% | 63% | 56.8%±12.8 | 40% |
| Body | 31% | 47% | 53% | 42.2%±13.4 | 16% ▼ |
| T | 29% | 64% | 61% | 56.6%±13.9 | 44% ▲ |
Optimal v Clara Burel: +0.8±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Emiliana wins | v Clara | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 54% | 56% | 44.4%±12.1 | 49% |
| Body | 20% | 47% | 48% | 39.1%±14.4 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 31% | 55% | 59% | 49.6%±13.6 | 46% ▲ |
Optimal v Clara Burel: +0.8±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Clara Burel returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Emiliana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 51% | +4.2 | +4.1 | +0.7 | +9.0±3.2 |
| FH crosscourt | 23% | +5.3 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +7.0±3.9 |
| FH down the line | 18% | +1.5 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +2.4±4.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −6.7 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −7.6±1.4 |
Lean FH through the middle: +3.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (146 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Emiliana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 54% | +6.0 | +0.9 | −1.2 | +5.7±2.9 |
| BH crosscourt | 25% | +7.7 | +1.8 | +2.5 | +12.0±3.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 11% | −6.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −6.6±1.5 |
| BH down the line | 10% | +2.2 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +4.4±3.7 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +6.2±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (131 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Emiliana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | −3.2 | +1.3 | +1.1 | −0.7±2.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 32% | +0.5 | −1.7 | −1.2 | −2.4±3.6 |
| FH down the line | 19% | −0.6 | +2.9 | +2.3 | +4.6±3.5 |
Lean FH through the middle: −0.5±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (47 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Emiliana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 59% | −2.6 | −0.2 | −3.4 | −6.2±2.7 |
| BH crosscourt | 31% | +1.5 | −1.3 | −2.0 | −1.8±3.3 |
| BH down the line | 10% | −0.5 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −0.5±3.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (49 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Emiliana Arango returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Clara | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 47% | +4.2 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +6.9±3.1 |
| FH down the line | 20% | +1.5 | +0.9 | +2.3 | +4.7±4.2 |
| FH slice through the middle | 19% | −6.7 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −6.4±1.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 14% | +5.3 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +7.2±3.7 |
Lean FH through the middle: +2.9±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (59 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Clara | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 58% | +6.0 | −1.6 | +0.4 | +4.8±2.9 |
| BH down the line | 22% | +2.2 | −0.5 | +0.9 | +2.6±4.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 12% | +7.7 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +8.6±3.2 |
| BH slice through the middle | 8% | −6.2 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −5.7±1.1 |
Lean BH through the middle: +0.9±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (76 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Clara Burel
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | +9.9±5.8 | +6.7 | +3.2 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +2.0±3.7 | +0.5 | +1.5 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −2.0±5.1 | −0.2 | −1.8 |
| BH to the middle · return | −2.3±4.1 | +1.9 | −4.2 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −4.1±5.0 | +1.2 | −5.3 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | −4.1±5.0 | +1.2 | −5.3 |
| BH to the middle · return | −2.3±4.1 | +1.9 | −4.2 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −2.0±5.1 | −0.2 | −1.8 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +2.0±3.7 | +0.5 | +1.5 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +9.9±5.8 | +6.7 | +3.2 |
Emiliana Arango
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to the middle · rally | +2.1±3.8 | +2.3 | −0.2 |
| FH to the middle · return | +2.1±4.3 | −1.1 | +3.2 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +1.6±5.2 | +1.9 | −0.3 |
| BH to the middle · return | −0.6±4.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −1.3±3.6 | −1.2 | −0.1 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −10.0±5.9 | −6.9 | −3.1 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | −10.0±5.9 | −6.9 | −3.1 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −1.3±3.6 | −1.2 | −0.1 |
| BH to the middle · return | −0.6±4.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +1.6±5.2 | +1.9 | −0.3 |
| FH to the middle · return | +2.1±4.3 | −1.1 | +3.2 |
Against Emiliana Arango-like opponents
| Clara Burel v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 52.2% | 47.7% |