Game plan

Elena Dementieva v Serena Williams

Every number combines what Elena Dementieva does well with what Serena Williams allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Elena Dementieva wins, best of 3 31%90%: 12%–58% · best of 5: 27%

Serve points won 54.2% / 57.9% Elena / Serena · tour 56.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 26%serve 54.1% / 58.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Elena Dementieva's record against Serena Williams's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.6 on serve, +5.0 on return vs expectation (223 points); head-to-head: +1.7 on serve, +4.7 on return vs expectation (545 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Elena	Serena
Direction choice	+0.08 ±0.05 better than 69%	+0.34 ±0.04 better than 97%
Shot selection	+0.16 ±0.09 better than 61%	+0.47 ±0.05 better than 93%
Execution	+0.58 ±0.32 better than 81%	−0.04 ±0.27 better than 59%
Points left on the table	2.45 ±0.08 lower than 69%	2.20 ±0.07 lower than 94%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Elena Dementieva serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Elena wins	v Serena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	57%	64%	65%	62.4%±3.6	72% ▲
Body	12%	65%	53%	60.7%±6.4	0% ▼
T	32%	71%	66%	68.5%±4.5	28% ▼

Optimal v Serena Williams: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Elena wins	v Serena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	61%	66%	61.7%±4.4	57% ▲
Body	21%	54%	57%	55.3%±5.5	21%
T	37%	63%	61%	59.6%±4.4	22% ▼

Optimal v Serena Williams: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Serena Williams serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Serena wins	v Elena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	70%	65%	69.7%±3.6	65% ▲
Body	8%	62%	60%	64.7%±6.6	0% ▼
T	42%	79%	61%	74.3%±3.6	35% ▼

Optimal v Elena Dementieva: +0.3±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Serena wins	v Elena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	75%	60%	70.0%±3.6	36% ▼
Body	6%	60%	55%	58.6%±8.3	0% ▼
T	49%	70%	62%	67.6%±4.2	64% ▲

Optimal v Elena Dementieva: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Elena Dementieva returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Serena	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.2	−0.5	−1.3	+2.4±1.8
FH down the line	35%	+1.5	−1.0	−1.4	−0.9±3.2
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.3	−0.4	−4.0	+1.0±3.2
BH through the middle	1%	+5.2	+0.3	−1.0	+4.6±1.9
FH slice through the middle	1%	−6.7	−0.3	+2.1	−4.9±2.0

Lean FH through the middle: +1.5±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (811 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Serena	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.0	−1.2	−1.0	+3.9±1.6
BH crosscourt	25%	+7.7	−2.0	−0.2	+5.4±2.5
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	−1.0	−4.1	−2.9±3.7
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	−4.2	−0.2	−10.7±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	−3.2	−2.8	−10.1±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.6±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1084 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Serena	Value
FH down the line	36%	−0.6	−1.1	+0.6	−1.1±4.4
FH crosscourt	35%	+0.5	+2.7	−3.0	+0.2±3.7
FH through the middle	29%	−3.2	+0.2	−0.9	−3.9±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.7±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (286 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Serena	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	−0.4	−0.3	−3.2±1.7
BH crosscourt	32%	+1.5	+0.9	−0.2	+2.2±2.5
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	+1.5	−2.1	−1.1±4.4
FH through the middle	6%	−2.7	−0.4	−0.9	−4.0±2.2
FH inside-out	3%	+1.4	−0.8	+0.6	+1.1±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.3±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (601 returns charted)

Serena Williams returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elena	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.2	−2.6	+1.6	+3.2±1.5
FH crosscourt	36%	+5.3	−1.6	−1.0	+2.7±2.6
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	−0.4	+0.7	+1.8±3.4
BH through the middle	1%	+5.2	−3.4	−0.2	+1.6±2.3
FH slice through the middle	1%	−6.7	−0.7	+1.0	−6.4±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +0.4±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2166 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elena	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+0.3	−0.2	+6.1±1.5
BH crosscourt	33%	+7.7	+1.3	−0.8	+8.3±2.4
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+1.1	+0.2	+3.5±3.9
BH slice through the middle	3%	−6.2	−4.5	−0.6	−11.3±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	−2.8	−1.2	−8.1±3.0
FH through the middle	1%	+5.1	+2.0	+1.6	+8.7±2.1

Lean FH through the middle: +3.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1939 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elena	Value
FH crosscourt	43%	+0.5	−0.5	+2.3	+2.3±3.1
FH through the middle	37%	−3.2	−0.1	+2.3	−1.0±2.2
FH down the line	18%	−0.6	+5.3	−1.1	+3.6±4.3
BH inside-in	1%	+2.0	−1.4	−0.7	−0.2±3.4
BH through the middle	1%	−1.0	−0.2	+0.1	−1.1±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +2.4±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (750 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elena	Value
BH crosscourt	51%	+1.5	+0.9	−0.7	+1.6±2.8
BH through the middle	30%	−2.6	−1.8	+0.1	−4.3±2.3
BH down the line	17%	−0.5	+3.4	+2.6	+5.5±4.9
FH inside-in	1%	+0.7	+0.7	+2.3	+3.7±3.3
FH inside-out	1%	+1.4	+0.2	−1.1	+0.4±3.0

Lean BH down the line: +5.0±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (954 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.