Game plan

Elina Avanesyan v Indy De Vroome

Every number combines what Elina Avanesyan does well with what Indy De Vroome allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Elina Avanesyan wins, best of 3 45%90%: 13%–81% · best of 5: 44%

Serve points won 53.9% / 54.7% Elina / Indy · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 45%serve 53.9% / 54.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Elina Avanesyan's record against Indy De Vroome's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Elina Avanesyan serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Elina wins	v Indy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	56%	67%	57.1%±9.7	62% ▲
Body	28%	54%	58%	54.6%±10.5	25% ▼
T	25%	56%	66%	53.5%±14.9	13% ▼

Optimal v Indy De Vroome: +0.1±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Elina wins	v Indy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	62%	59%	55.2%±12.3	61% ▲
Body	26%	57%	49%	50.0%±10.8	11% ▼
T	20%	59%	63%	57.7%±13.0	28% ▲

Optimal v Indy De Vroome: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Indy De Vroome serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Indy wins	v Elina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	71%	65%	69.7%±10.1	53% ▲
Body	45%	59%	62%	63.4%±10.5	33% ▼
T	17%	70%	69%	70.6%±12.9	14% ▼

Optimal v Elina Avanesyan: +0.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Indy wins	v Elina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	6%	67%	62%	63.4%±13.9	18% ▲
Body	32%	61%	61%	66.2%±11.7	17% ▼
T	61%	71%	67%	73.5%±9.1	65% ▲

Optimal v Elina Avanesyan: +0.2±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Elina Avanesyan returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Indy	Value
FH through the middle	56%	+4.2	+4.7	−2.4	+6.4±2.9
FH down the line	20%	+1.5	+0.7	+1.3	+3.6±4.3
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.3	+0.4	−1.2	+4.5±4.1
FH slice through the middle	6%	−6.7	−0.6	−1.2	−8.5±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−6.6	−2.3	−4.4	−13.3±2.1

Lean FH through the middle: +2.5±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (309 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Indy	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.0	+3.3	+0.2	+9.6±2.8
BH crosscourt	36%	+7.7	+3.7	−3.3	+8.1±3.3
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	+0.7	−3.1	−0.3±4.1
BH slice down the line	2%	−12.5	+0.5	±0.0	−12.0±1.5
BH slice through the middle	2%	−6.2	+1.0	±0.0	−5.2±1.0

Lean BH through the middle: +2.8±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (260 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Indy	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.2	+2.6	−2.9	−3.5±3.1
FH down the line	34%	−0.6	+4.2	+0.2	+3.9±4.8
FH crosscourt	15%	+0.5	+0.7	−3.0	−1.7±3.8

Lean FH down the line: +4.6±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Indy	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	+1.0	−2.6	−4.2±2.6
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	+0.6	+0.6	+2.7±3.2
BH down the line	22%	−0.5	+2.3	−1.2	+0.6±4.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (113 returns charted)

Indy De Vroome returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elina	Value
FH through the middle	58%	+4.2	+0.4	+1.9	+6.4±2.9
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.3	−0.4	+1.9	+6.8±4.2
FH down the line	7%	+1.5	−0.4	+3.9	+5.1±3.9
FH slice through the middle	6%	−6.7	+0.9	+0.1	−5.7±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (98 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Elina Avanesyan

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−0.1±3.5	+5.2	−5.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.5±5.6	+0.1	−2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.0±5.0	−0.4	−3.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.0±5.0	−0.4	−3.6
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.5±5.6	+0.1	−2.6
FH to the middle · return	−0.1±3.5	+5.2	−5.3

Indy De Vroome

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+3.4±3.9	−0.1	+3.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.2±5.4	+2.6	−0.4
BH to the middle · return	+2.1±3.1	−0.6	+2.7
BH to the middle · rally	+0.9±3.2	−0.7	+1.6
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.2±4.5	−2.6	−0.6
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.8±6.4	−6.6	+2.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−8.3±4.1	−7.0	−1.2
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.8±6.4	−6.6	+2.8
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.2±4.5	−2.6	−0.6
BH to the middle · rally	+0.9±3.2	−0.7	+1.6
BH to the middle · return	+2.1±3.1	−0.6	+2.7

Against Indy De Vroome-like opponents

Elina Avanesyan v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	51.6%	42.3%