Game plan

Elsa Jacquemot v Sonay Kartal

Every number combines what Elsa Jacquemot does well with what Sonay Kartal allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Elsa Jacquemot wins, best of 3 53%90%: 18%–85% · best of 5: 54%

Serve points won 59.4% / 58.8% Elsa / Sonay · tour 56.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 53%serve 59.4% / 58.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Elsa Jacquemot's record against Sonay Kartal's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Elsa	Sonay
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.09 better than 59%	+0.02 ±0.30 better than 57%
Shot selection	−0.54 ±0.62 better than 10%	−0.19 ±0.38 better than 29%
Execution	+1.04 ±0.85 better than 93%	+0.55 ±0.71 better than 81%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Elsa Jacquemot serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Elsa wins	v Sonay	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	60%	67%	61.2%±11.3	65% ▲
Body	14%	57%	58%	57.8%±15.1	0% ▼
T	34%	72%	63%	67.7%±13.2	35% ▲

Optimal v Sonay Kartal: +0.9±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Elsa wins	v Sonay	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	74%	67%	74.5%±10.8	51% ▲
Body	20%	58%	60%	61.9%±14.2	5% ▼
T	33%	63%	71%	69.2%±12.2	44% ▲

Optimal v Sonay Kartal: +0.9±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Sonay Kartal serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sonay wins	v Elsa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	63%	71%	67.8%±11.3	57% ▲
Body	19%	52%	53%	47.8%±13.2	4% ▼
T	39%	67%	69%	68.2%±12.2	39%

Optimal v Elsa Jacquemot: +0.8±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sonay wins	v Elsa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	32%	67%	66%	66.9%±12.3	34% ▲
Body	25%	59%	49%	51.7%±13.8	10% ▼
T	43%	66%	64%	65.6%±12.0	56% ▲

Optimal v Elsa Jacquemot: +1.0±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Elsa Jacquemot returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sonay	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	+0.8	−0.7	+4.3±3.2
FH down the line	34%	+1.5	+3.7	−1.3	+3.9±4.7
FH slice through the middle	13%	−6.7	−0.5	−2.0	−9.2±2.1
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.3	+1.0	+1.1	+7.4±3.7

Lean FH through the middle: +1.6±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (90 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sonay	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.0	+2.5	+1.1	+9.6±2.9
BH crosscourt	25%	+7.7	+2.7	−1.6	+8.9±3.4
BH slice through the middle	17%	−6.2	+0.4	+1.2	−4.7±1.9
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	+0.7	−2.6	+0.2±3.7

Lean BH through the middle: +3.8±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted)

Sonay Kartal returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elsa	Value
FH through the middle	35%	+4.2	+1.7	+2.2	+8.1±3.1
FH crosscourt	30%	+5.3	−0.9	+0.2	+4.6±4.2
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	+1.4	−4.0	−1.1±3.9
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	−0.8	−0.4	−7.9±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−6.6	−1.2	±0.0	−7.9±2.0

Lean FH through the middle: +5.5±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (80 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elsa	Value
BH slice through the middle	35%	−6.2	+3.2	−1.6	−4.7±2.2
BH through the middle	29%	+6.0	−2.0	−2.0	+2.0±2.8
BH crosscourt	19%	+7.7	+2.2	−0.5	+9.4±3.2
BH slice crosscourt	10%	−4.2	+0.4	−0.8	−4.6±2.0
BH slice down the line	7%	−12.5	−0.9	−0.8	−14.1±2.1

Lean BH through the middle: +2.7±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Elsa Jacquemot

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+6.0±3.2	+3.0	+3.0
BH to the middle · return	+4.4±2.8	+2.2	+2.2
BH to the middle · rally	+1.8±2.6	+1.6	+0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.2±3.9	−0.2	+1.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.7±4.3	+0.6	+0.2
FH to the middle · return	+0.5±3.0	+0.4	±0.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.8±3.9	+1.0	−1.8
FH to the middle · rally	−0.5±2.7	−0.1	−0.4
BH to their backhand · return	+0.4±3.8	+1.9	−1.5
FH to the middle · return	+0.5±3.0	+0.4	±0.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.7±4.3	+0.6	+0.2

Sonay Kartal

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+5.1±3.5	+2.0	+3.1
BH to the middle · rally	+2.6±2.5	+2.2	+0.4
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.3±4.1	−0.4	+2.6
FH to the middle · return	+0.5±3.0	−1.3	+1.8
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.2±3.2	−0.7	+0.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.2±4.3	+0.9	−0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−1.1±4.5	−1.9	+0.8
FH to the middle · rally	−0.8±2.8	+1.0	−1.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.2±4.3	+0.9	−0.8
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.2±3.2	−0.7	+0.8
FH to the middle · return	+0.5±3.0	−1.3	+1.8

Against Sonay Kartal-like opponents

Elsa Jacquemot v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	55.6%	42.7%