Game plan

Hugo Gaston v Omar Camporese

Every number combines what Hugo Gaston does well with what Omar Camporese allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Hugo Gaston wins, best of 3 33%90%: 9%–68% · best of 5: 29%

Serve points won 61.5% / 65.1% Hugo / Omar · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 33%serve 61.5% / 65.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Hugo Gaston's record against Omar Camporese's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Hugo	Omar
Direction choice	−0.07 ±0.15 better than 39%	+0.01 ±0.35 better than 60%
Shot selection	−0.41 ±0.24 better than 16%	−0.13 ±0.25 better than 35%
Execution	−0.58 ±0.52 better than 42%	±0.00 ±0.27 better than 68%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Hugo Gaston serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Hugo wins	v Omar	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	69%	73%	69.7%±10.7	54% ▲
Body	16%	66%	65%	67.8%±13.0	3% ▼
T	43%	67%	81%	73.9%±10.0	43%

Optimal v Omar Camporese: +0.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Hugo wins	v Omar	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	67%	72%	74%	72.7%±9.3	80% ▲
Body	7%	66%	71%	73.9%±12.8	0% ▼
T	26%	75%	73%	75.9%±11.8	20% ▼

Optimal v Omar Camporese: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Omar Camporese serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Omar wins	v Hugo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	72%	68%	67.7%±10.5	57% ▲
Body	7%	61%	54%	51.1%±17.2	0% ▼
T	49%	81%	75%	80.4%±9.0	43% ▼

Optimal v Hugo Gaston: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Omar wins	v Hugo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	81%	79%	85.3%±7.0	44% ▼
Body	3%	61%	60%	58.6%±17.7	0% ▼
T	43%	82%	73%	83.3%±7.9	56% ▲

Optimal v Hugo Gaston: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Hugo Gaston returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Omar	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+0.5	+2.0	+6.8±3.0
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−4.2	−0.9	+0.5±4.2
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−0.5	+2.2	−2.5±2.1
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−2.1	+0.6	+0.2±3.7
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.3	−0.1	+0.1	−4.4±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +4.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (152 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Omar	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−1.1	−0.8	+4.6±2.7
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	−3.4	±0.0	+5.4±2.5
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−1.4	−0.1	−5.7±2.3
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−1.4	−1.6	+1.2±4.1
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−1.4	−1.4	−2.3±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (180 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Omar	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+0.4	+0.8	−2.3±2.9
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	+0.1	+2.7	+2.6±4.4
FH down the line	13%	−1.8	−1.2	−1.2	−4.2±4.1
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−12.5	±0.0	±0.0	−12.5±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.9±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (84 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Omar	Value
BH through the middle	55%	−2.9	−1.4	−0.5	−4.8±2.3
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−0.8	±0.0	+0.3±2.3
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−1.0	+1.4	+0.1±3.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (80 returns charted)

Omar Camporese returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	−1.9	−1.9	+0.5±3.1
FH down the line	27%	+1.7	±0.0	−3.4	−1.7±4.2
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.5	+0.6	−1.0	+5.1±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.0±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (73 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
BH through the middle	23%	+6.4	−4.6	+2.1	+3.9±2.6
BH slice through the middle	23%	−4.2	−0.6	+0.6	−4.2±2.3
BH down the line	21%	+4.2	−5.5	±0.0	−1.3±4.4
BH crosscourt	15%	+8.8	−1.9	−1.3	+5.6±3.3
BH slice crosscourt	9%	+0.5	+1.3	+1.5	+3.4±2.4

Lean BH through the middle: +3.7±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (95 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	−3.1	−0.5	−2.6±3.2
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	+0.4	−0.1	−2.6±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	15%	−4.0	−0.4	±0.0	−4.4±1.4
BH slice through the middle	11%	−11.3	+0.6	±0.0	−10.7±1.2
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−0.3	+2.3	+1.8±3.9

Lean BH through the middle: +0.9±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (73 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Hugo Gaston

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.4±3.9	+2.5	+1.9
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.7±3.1	+2.7	−2.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.7±3.8	+1.8	−1.1
FH to their backhand · return	−1.6±4.0	−2.7	+1.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.9±3.1	−3.3	−2.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.9±3.1	−3.3	−2.6
FH to their backhand · return	−1.6±4.0	−2.7	+1.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.7±3.8	+1.8	−1.1
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.7±3.1	+2.7	−2.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.4±3.9	+2.5	+1.9

Omar Camporese

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.6±3.1	+0.1	−0.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.2±3.6	−0.1	−1.1
FH to the middle · rally	−1.3±2.6	−1.3	−0.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.7±3.2	−0.9	−0.7
BH to the middle · return	−2.2±2.5	−4.1	+2.0
FH to the middle · return	−3.6±2.9	−0.6	−3.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.9±3.6	−1.4	−2.4
FH to the middle · return	−3.6±2.9	−0.6	−3.0
BH to the middle · return	−2.2±2.5	−4.1	+2.0
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.7±3.2	−0.9	−0.7
FH to the middle · rally	−1.3±2.6	−1.3	−0.1

Against Omar Camporese-like opponents

Hugo Gaston v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	60.8%	37.9%