Game plan

Jelena Jankovic v Victoria Azarenka

Every number combines what Jelena Jankovic does well with what Victoria Azarenka allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jelena Jankovic wins, best of 3 7%90%: 3%–15% · best of 5: 3%

Serve points won 46.0% / 57.1% Jelena / Victoria · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 7%serve 46.6% / 57.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jelena Jankovic's record against Victoria Azarenka's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −4.5 on serve, +9.1 on return vs expectation (176 points); head-to-head: −12.7 on serve, −3.5 on return vs expectation (123 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Jelena	Victoria
Direction choice	+0.04 ±0.09 better than 62%	+0.06 ±0.05 better than 65%
Shot selection	−0.06 ±0.10 better than 40%	+0.21 ±0.07 better than 67%
Execution	+0.66 ±0.50 better than 84%	+0.96 ±0.29 better than 90%
Points left on the table	2.56 ±0.11 lower than 57%	2.42 ±0.07 lower than 74%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jelena Jankovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jelena wins	v Victoria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	65%	65%	64.1%±5.8	49% ▲
Body	20%	52%	56%	51.0%±7.2	15% ▼
T	46%	59%	66%	57.3%±5.8	36% ▼

Optimal v Victoria Azarenka: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jelena wins	v Victoria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	58%	69%	61.6%±5.5	65% ▲
Body	17%	52%	51%	46.7%±8.0	17%
T	33%	50%	62%	47.6%±6.4	18% ▼

Optimal v Victoria Azarenka: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Victoria Azarenka serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Victoria wins	v Jelena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	65%	68%	67.1%±4.9	41%
Body	18%	58%	57%	57.2%±7.9	3% ▼
T	41%	68%	76%	75.5%±5.3	56% ▲

Optimal v Jelena Jankovic: +1.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Victoria wins	v Jelena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	67%	72%	72.5%±5.5	57% ▲
Body	21%	57%	48%	49.2%±8.3	6% ▼
T	37%	60%	68%	63.6%±5.4	37%

Optimal v Jelena Jankovic: +1.1±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +8.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jelena Jankovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victoria	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.2	+1.5	+1.3	+7.0±2.0
FH down the line	34%	+1.5	+3.0	+0.7	+5.2±3.6
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.3	−1.1	+1.0	+5.2±3.6
FH slice through the middle	4%	−6.7	+1.4	+0.9	−4.3±2.3
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	+0.1	+0.8	−5.7±2.5

Lean FH through the middle: +1.7±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (505 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victoria	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.0	+0.5	+0.4	+6.9±2.1
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	−0.1	+0.9	+3.0±4.1
BH slice through the middle	16%	−6.2	−1.6	−1.5	−9.2±2.4
BH crosscourt	15%	+7.7	−3.3	−0.1	+4.2±3.0
BH slice crosscourt	11%	−4.2	−0.1	−2.3	−6.5±3.0

Lean BH through the middle: +5.9±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (295 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victoria	Value
FH down the line	42%	−0.6	+3.7	−0.3	+2.9±4.7
FH through the middle	37%	−3.2	−0.2	−0.2	−3.6±2.6
FH crosscourt	20%	+0.5	−1.7	+1.2	±0.0±3.9

Lean FH down the line: +3.0±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (177 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victoria	Value
BH down the line	43%	−0.5	+1.3	−1.2	−0.5±4.7
BH through the middle	41%	−2.6	−0.2	−1.2	−4.1±2.3
BH crosscourt	17%	+1.5	+1.0	+0.2	+2.8±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (143 returns charted)

Victoria Azarenka returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jelena	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.2	+2.0	+1.2	+7.3±2.0
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.3	+0.9	+2.3	+8.5±3.6
FH down the line	21%	+1.5	+1.7	+1.0	+4.1±3.9
FH slice through the middle	4%	−6.7	−0.9	−1.0	−8.6±2.4
FH slice down the line	1%	−10.5	−0.2	±0.0	−10.7±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1610 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jelena	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	+1.0	+1.6	+8.7±1.9
BH crosscourt	28%	+7.7	+3.2	+1.7	+12.6±2.9
BH slice through the middle	12%	−6.2	−0.7	+0.7	−6.2±2.4
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	±0.0	+0.6	+2.8±4.5
BH slice down the line	4%	−12.5	−1.0	±0.0	−13.5±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.7±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1134 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jelena	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.2	−0.7	−0.5	−4.4±2.8
FH down the line	31%	−0.6	+3.1	−3.0	−0.4±5.0
FH crosscourt	31%	+0.5	+1.1	+5.1	+6.7±4.1
BH through the middle	1%	−1.0	+0.4	+1.9	+1.4±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.4±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (392 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jelena	Value
BH crosscourt	47%	+1.5	+0.4	+3.6	+5.5±3.1
BH through the middle	37%	−2.6	+1.3	+1.9	+0.6±2.3
BH down the line	14%	−0.5	+5.2	±0.0	+4.7±5.1
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.7	+0.7	−0.2	−11.2±1.8
FH through the middle	1%	−2.7	−1.3	−0.5	−4.5±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (679 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Jelena Jankovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	+5.4±5.1	+3.7	+1.7
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+4.1±3.5	+1.7	+2.4
FH to the middle · return	+3.5±2.0	+2.4	+1.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.2±2.9	+2.6	+0.6
BH to their forehand · return	+3.2±4.3	+2.5	+0.6
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.9±2.7	+3.0	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	−4.5±3.8	−5.1	+0.6
BH to the middle · serve +1	−2.5±2.2	−1.3	−1.2
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.3±4.1	−3.3	+1.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.8±3.3	−2.5	+0.7
FH to the middle · return +1	−1.6±3.1	−3.1	+1.5

Victoria Azarenka

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+8.9±2.6	+1.4	+7.5
FH to their forehand · return	+8.2±4.0	+2.5	+5.7
BH to their backhand · return	+6.6±3.0	+2.3	+4.4
BH to their forehand · return +1	+6.6±5.4	+5.0	+1.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.9±3.2	+2.2	+2.7
BH to their forehand · return	+4.5±4.8	+4.3	+0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	−1.7±4.4	±0.0	−1.7
FH to the middle · return +1	−0.6±2.9	+0.6	−1.1
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.5±3.5	+1.0	−1.4
FH to the middle · serve +1	−0.1±2.6	+2.2	−2.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	±0.0±3.5	−0.4	+0.4

Against Victoria Azarenka-like opponents

Jelena Jankovic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	49.9%	41.1%
Players most similar to Victoria Azarenka	1	47.7%	47.7%
Victoria Azarenka (charted head-to-head)	1	38.6%	38.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Karolina Pliskova, Leylah Fernandez, Belinda Bencic, Elise Mertens, Sorana Cirstea, Jaqueline Cristian, Linda Fruhvirtova, Alison Riske Amritraj, Mona Barthel, Vera Zvonareva. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head

Jelena Jankovic v Victoria Azarenka Miami R64 · Hard · 27 Mar 2015