Game plan

Jelena Ostapenko v Petra Kvitova

Every number combines what Jelena Ostapenko does well with what Petra Kvitova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jelena Ostapenko wins, best of 3 7%90%: 2%–21% · best of 5: 3%

Serve points won 52.6% / 64.1% Jelena / Petra · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 11%serve 53.1% / 62.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jelena Ostapenko's record against Petra Kvitova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.6 on serve, −2.4 on return vs expectation (1388 points); head-to-head: −4.8 on serve, −11.5 on return vs expectation (206 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Jelena	Petra
Direction choice	+0.43 ±0.05 better than 98%	+0.13 ±0.04 better than 77%
Shot selection	+0.12 ±0.09 better than 58%	+0.33 ±0.07 better than 82%
Execution	−1.29 ±0.51 better than 14%	−0.96 ±0.32 better than 18%
Points left on the table	1.88 ±0.07 lower than 100%	3.00 ±0.06 lower than 11%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Jelena Ostapenko −3.30, Petra Kvitova −2.19. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jelena Ostapenko serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jelena wins	v Petra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	65%	66%	64.7%±5.0	29% ▼
Body	13%	56%	57%	55.6%±6.9	0% ▼
T	56%	68%	68%	67.4%±4.1	71% ▲

Optimal v Petra Kvitova: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jelena wins	v Petra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	67%	67%	68.3%±4.7	47% ▲
Body	19%	58%	58%	59.9%±6.2	4% ▼
T	45%	64%	64%	63.2%±4.5	49% ▲

Optimal v Petra Kvitova: +0.1±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Petra Kvitova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Petra wins	v Jelena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	72%	66%	72.7%±4.1	57% ▲
Body	12%	57%	60%	59.4%±6.4	0% ▼
T	46%	66%	70%	68.0%±4.3	43% ▼

Optimal v Jelena Ostapenko: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Petra wins	v Jelena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	71%	65%	69.7%±4.1	51% ▼
Body	8%	54%	52%	49.7%±7.6	0% ▼
T	38%	73%	64%	72.2%±4.3	49% ▲

Optimal v Jelena Ostapenko: +1.0±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jelena Ostapenko returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
FH through the middle	35%	+4.2	−2.2	−1.9	+0.1±2.0
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.3	+4.8	−0.2	+9.9±3.3
FH down the line	21%	+1.5	−2.7	−5.1	−6.3±3.9
FH slice through the middle	8%	−6.7	−1.3	−2.0	−10.1±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	−0.5	+0.9	−6.2±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +9.8±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (727 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
BH through the middle	37%	+6.0	−3.0	+0.8	+3.9±1.8
BH crosscourt	29%	+7.7	−1.5	+2.7	+8.9±2.6
BH down the line	14%	+2.2	−2.8	−0.5	−1.1±4.0
BH slice through the middle	11%	−6.2	−1.9	−2.8	−10.9±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.2	−2.6	+0.2	−6.6±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (682 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
FH crosscourt	57%	+0.5	−3.8	+1.0	−2.3±4.1
FH through the middle	24%	−3.2	−2.1	−1.0	−6.3±2.6
FH down the line	19%	−0.6	−3.8	−5.1	−9.5±5.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.3±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (202 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
BH crosscourt	49%	+1.5	−0.4	−2.8	−1.7±2.7
BH through the middle	29%	−2.6	−2.2	−2.3	−7.1±2.0
BH down the line	19%	−0.5	−5.0	−3.7	−9.3±4.7
FH inside-in	1%	+0.7	−0.6	+1.0	+1.1±3.6
FH through the middle	1%	−2.7	−0.2	−1.0	−3.9±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.0±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (417 returns charted)

Petra Kvitova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jelena	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.2	−1.4	−1.1	+1.7±1.9
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.3	−0.7	−1.6	+3.0±3.4
FH down the line	19%	+1.5	−5.1	+1.0	−2.5±3.8
FH slice through the middle	4%	−6.7	−0.1	+1.8	−5.0±2.6
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−6.6	−0.6	+1.1	−6.1±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1275 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jelena	Value
BH through the middle	47%	+6.0	−1.9	+0.2	+4.4±1.6
BH crosscourt	26%	+7.7	−2.2	+2.1	+7.6±2.8
BH down the line	13%	+2.2	±0.0	+1.3	+3.4±3.6
BH slice through the middle	7%	−6.2	+0.2	+1.7	−4.3±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−4.5	−0.8	−9.4±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.9±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1499 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jelena	Value
FH crosscourt	43%	+0.5	−0.4	−3.0	−2.9±3.8
FH through the middle	37%	−3.2	−4.5	−0.6	−8.3±2.6
FH down the line	20%	−0.6	−1.3	+3.2	+1.3±4.7

Lean FH down the line: +5.3±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (419 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jelena	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.6	+0.5	+0.4	−1.7±2.2
BH crosscourt	41%	+1.5	+1.2	+10.4	+13.1±3.0
BH down the line	15%	−0.5	+1.0	+2.2	+2.6±4.5
BH slice through the middle	1%	−11.7	−0.7	−0.6	−13.0±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.2±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (593 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.