Game plan

Johanna Konta v Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Every number combines what Johanna Konta does well with what Aliaksandra Sasnovich allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Johanna Konta wins, best of 3 94%90%: 73%–99% · best of 5: 97%

Serve points won 62.4% / 50.8% Johanna / Aliaksandra · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 93%serve 62.5% / 51.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Johanna Konta's record against Aliaksandra Sasnovich's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.2 on serve, +8.6 on return vs expectation (181 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Johanna	Aliaksandra
Direction choice	+0.21 ±0.10 better than 87%	+0.06 ±0.10 better than 67%
Shot selection	−0.13 ±0.17 better than 34%	+0.01 ±0.15 better than 46%
Execution	+0.43 ±0.58 better than 77%	−1.60 ±0.56 better than 9%
Points left on the table	2.47 ±0.14 lower than 68%	2.36 ±0.10 lower than 80%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Johanna Konta serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Johanna wins	v Aliaksandra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	71%	67%	72.0%±6.3	62% ▲
Body	12%	62%	59%	63.6%±9.8	0% ▼
T	41%	72%	68%	72.9%±6.6	38% ▼

Optimal v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: +0.8±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Johanna wins	v Aliaksandra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	70%	74%	78.1%±6.1	70% ▲
Body	11%	53%	61%	58.1%±11.0	0% ▼
T	34%	69%	59%	63.8%±7.6	30% ▼

Optimal v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: +1.1±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +7.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Aliaksandra wins	v Johanna	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	58%	67%	59.9%±7.7	40%
Body	24%	51%	59%	52.4%±9.3	9% ▼
T	36%	69%	71%	71.9%±6.9	51% ▲

Optimal v Johanna Konta: +1.1±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +9.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Aliaksandra wins	v Johanna	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	65%	63%	62.6%±7.1	49%
Body	26%	55%	59%	58.4%±9.5	11% ▼
T	25%	59%	65%	59.9%±8.8	40% ▲

Optimal v Johanna Konta: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Johanna Konta returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Aliaksandra	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.2	−2.0	−0.5	+1.6±2.7
FH crosscourt	27%	+5.3	+3.3	+2.4	+11.0±4.2
FH down the line	13%	+1.5	−1.0	+0.2	+0.8±4.7
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	+1.0	+0.2	−5.5±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	+0.4	+0.2	−6.1±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.9±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (277 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Aliaksandra	Value
BH through the middle	34%	+6.0	+1.3	−1.3	+6.0±2.4
BH slice through the middle	22%	−6.2	−0.7	±0.0	−6.9±2.4
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	+1.7	−1.9	+7.6±3.4
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−1.7	+3.9	+4.4±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.2	−1.7	−2.0	−7.9±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.4±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (339 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Aliaksandra	Value
FH crosscourt	60%	+0.5	+0.9	+0.9	+2.3±4.4
FH through the middle	40%	−3.2	−1.2	+1.4	−2.9±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (62 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Aliaksandra	Value
BH through the middle	49%	−2.6	−0.8	+0.5	−2.9±2.6
BH crosscourt	35%	+1.5	−0.8	−1.5	−0.8±3.5
BH down the line	16%	−0.5	+0.9	+1.8	+2.2±5.1

Lean BH down the line: +3.5±4.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (158 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Aliaksandra Sasnovich returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.2	−0.3	+2.2	+6.0±2.6
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.3	+0.7	−0.9	+5.1±4.3
FH down the line	23%	+1.5	−2.9	+2.0	+0.7±4.6
FH slice through the middle	4%	−6.7	−0.8	−1.6	−9.1±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−6.6	−1.6	−1.0	−9.2±2.0

Lean FH through the middle: +2.2±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (411 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	+0.7	+0.5	+7.2±2.5
BH crosscourt	27%	+7.7	+0.5	+0.2	+8.4±3.6
BH slice through the middle	10%	−6.2	−2.2	−0.8	−9.2±2.5
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	+0.2	+1.0	+3.4±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.2	−1.7	−0.7	−6.5±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (306 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.2	−2.9	+2.6	−3.5±3.0
FH crosscourt	31%	+0.5	+2.0	−1.9	+0.7±4.5
FH down the line	24%	−0.6	−2.5	−0.3	−3.4±5.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.9±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (147 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
BH crosscourt	49%	+1.5	−0.8	+0.2	+0.9±3.6
BH through the middle	38%	−2.6	−2.1	+3.3	−1.4±2.7
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	−0.8	−0.4	−1.7±5.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.2±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (152 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Johanna Konta

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+6.4±6.0	+2.2	+4.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+5.6±6.2	+6.4	−0.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+4.6±5.5	+2.0	+2.6
FH to their forehand · return	+3.0±5.7	+1.4	+1.6
BH to the middle · serve +1	+1.5±3.3	+2.0	−0.5
FH to the middle · serve +1	+1.3±3.5	−0.5	+1.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	−5.1±5.8	−4.3	−0.9
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.9±4.5	+0.8	−4.7
BH to their backhand · return +1	−3.7±4.7	−2.5	−1.2
BH to the middle · rally	−3.3±3.0	−3.6	+0.3
FH to the middle · rally	−3.1±3.2	−1.8	−1.3

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.8±5.4	+4.0	−1.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.0±5.3	+0.3	+1.7
BH to their forehand · return	+1.5±6.1	+0.4	+1.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.4±5.2	−0.2	+1.6
FH to the middle · return +1	+1.0±3.6	−1.1	+2.1
FH to the middle · return	+0.9±3.4	−0.3	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	−8.7±4.4	−5.6	−3.1
BH to their forehand · rally	−7.9±6.0	−2.6	−5.3
FH to the middle · serve +1	−6.6±3.5	−5.4	−1.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.2±4.5	−4.2	−0.9
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.4±4.6	−3.5	−0.9

Against Aliaksandra Sasnovich-like opponents

Johanna Konta v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.7%	41.1%
Players most similar to Aliaksandra Sasnovich	1	59.1%	47.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Amanda Anisimova, Linda Noskova, Sorana Cirstea, Aryna Sabalenka, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Petra Kvitova, Anett Kontaveit, Sabine Lisicki, Daniela Hantuchova. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.