Game plan

Karolina Muchova v Madison Brengle

Every number combines what Karolina Muchova does well with what Madison Brengle allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Karolina Muchova wins, best of 3 84%90%: 48%–98% · best of 5: 89%

Serve points won 57.2% / 49.7% Karolina / Madison · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 84%serve 57.2% / 49.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Karolina Muchova's record against Madison Brengle's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Karolina	Madison
Direction choice	−0.01 ±0.05 better than 52%	−0.26 ±0.16 better than 10%
Shot selection	−0.17 ±0.09 better than 30%	−0.96 ±0.26 better than 4%
Execution	+0.22 ±0.28 better than 70%	+1.35 ±0.51 better than 95%
Points left on the table	2.88 ±0.08 lower than 18%	2.66 ±0.17 lower than 42%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Karolina Muchova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Karolina wins	v Madison	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	68%	62%	64.2%±6.4	40%
Body	22%	58%	64%	65.1%±8.4	7% ▼
T	38%	74%	65%	71.4%±7.0	53% ▲

Optimal v Madison Brengle: +1.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Karolina wins	v Madison	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	68%	68%	70.4%±6.9	63% ▲
Body	14%	57%	59%	59.3%±9.9	0% ▼
T	39%	67%	61%	63.6%±7.4	37% ▼

Optimal v Madison Brengle: +0.9±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Madison Brengle serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Madison wins	v Karolina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	28%	64%	65%	62.8%±7.6	43% ▲
Body	48%	56%	58%	56.6%±6.9	33% ▼
T	25%	59%	69%	59.5%±8.7	24%

Optimal v Karolina Muchova: +0.9±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Madison wins	v Karolina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	37%	59%	66%	59.6%±7.3	37%
Body	47%	56%	54%	53.8%±7.6	32% ▼
T	16%	67%	64%	66.0%±9.6	31% ▲

Optimal v Karolina Muchova: +1.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +8.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Karolina Muchova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Madison	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	+1.1	−0.3	+5.0±2.4
FH slice through the middle	18%	−6.7	+3.0	+0.8	−2.9±1.8
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.3	−0.7	−2.9	+1.8±4.0
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	−2.9	−2.0	−3.3±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+2.2	±0.0	−4.5±1.9

Lean FH through the middle: +4.4±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1182 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Madison	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.0	−0.4	+1.7	+7.3±2.1
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	+0.9	+1.8	+10.5±3.2
BH slice through the middle	14%	−6.2	+0.2	−0.1	−6.2±2.0
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	−1.2	+7.3	+8.3±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.2	−0.8	±0.0	−5.0±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1188 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Madison	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.2	−1.4	+1.4	−3.2±3.0
FH crosscourt	28%	+0.5	−0.4	+3.2	+3.4±4.5
FH down the line	21%	−0.6	−1.9	+2.8	+0.3±5.3
FH slice through the middle	5%	−15.2	+0.1	±0.0	−15.1±1.5
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−14.9	+1.3	±0.0	−13.6±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.9±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (247 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Madison	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	+1.0	+2.8	+1.2±2.5
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.5	−0.4	+2.7	+3.8±3.4
BH down the line	20%	−0.5	−0.3	+1.3	+0.4±4.9
FH inside-in	5%	+0.7	−1.9	+3.2	+2.1±4.7
FH through the middle	3%	−2.7	+1.7	+1.4	+0.4±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.9±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (582 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Madison Brengle returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
FH through the middle	37%	+4.2	+2.8	−0.1	+6.9±2.5
FH slice through the middle	28%	−6.7	+1.1	−1.7	−7.3±2.4
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.3	+3.4	−1.4	+7.4±3.9
FH down the line	12%	+1.5	+2.8	−0.7	+3.6±4.0
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+0.6	−2.5	−8.5±2.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.1±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (235 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.0	+1.4	+0.1	+7.5±2.3
BH crosscourt	25%	+7.7	±0.0	+0.3	+8.1±3.0
BH slice through the middle	14%	−6.2	+0.8	−1.1	−6.6±2.4
BH down the line	9%	+2.2	+2.2	+0.2	+4.6±3.8
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.2	−0.8	−2.1	−7.1±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (169 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
FH through the middle	56%	−3.2	+0.1	+0.5	−2.5±2.6
FH crosscourt	22%	+0.5	+1.6	−3.9	−1.8±3.5
FH down the line	22%	−0.6	+1.0	−1.0	−0.6±4.3

Lean FH through the middle: −0.6±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (64 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Karolina	Value
BH crosscourt	55%	+1.5	+1.0	−1.3	+1.2±3.1
BH through the middle	28%	−2.6	+1.2	−0.7	−2.1±2.3
BH down the line	12%	−0.5	+1.3	−2.0	−1.3±4.4
BH slice through the middle	5%	−11.7	−0.5	+0.3	−11.9±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.9±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (100 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Karolina Muchova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+5.7±4.8	−1.6	+7.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+5.6±4.0	+2.3	+3.4
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+4.4±3.9	+2.4	+2.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.2±4.0	+0.6	+3.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.4±5.3	+1.0	+2.4
BH to their backhand · return	+3.2±3.4	±0.0	+3.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−4.3±5.4	−3.8	−0.5
FH to the middle · rally	−3.5±2.4	−2.6	−0.9
BH to the middle · rally	−3.0±2.6	−1.3	−1.7
BH to their backhand · return +1	−2.7±3.9	−1.6	−1.1
FH to the middle · return +1	−2.3±3.0	−1.6	−0.6

Madison Brengle

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+6.0±5.7	+1.3	+4.7
FH to their backhand · return	+5.9±4.6	+3.3	+2.6
BH to their backhand · return +1	+5.6±3.7	+4.7	+0.9
BH to their backhand · return	+4.1±3.2	+1.7	+2.3
BH to the middle · return	+3.3±2.9	+2.4	+0.9
BH to the middle · serve +1	+3.0±2.6	+2.6	+0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	−1.2±4.3	+0.3	−1.5
FH slice to the middle · rally	−1.2±3.1	+1.1	−2.3
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.1±2.7	−0.5	−0.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.1±3.1	+1.5	−2.6
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.9±3.6	−0.2	−0.7

Against Madison Brengle-like opponents

Karolina Muchova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.6%	42.9%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Anna Blinkova, Viktorija Golubic, Emma Raducanu, Elina Avanesyan, Zarina Diyas, Sara Errani, Caroline Wozniacki, Lesia Tsurenko, Alize Cornet, Kateryna Baindl. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.