Game plan

Katie Volynets v Harmony Tan

Every number combines what Katie Volynets does well with what Harmony Tan allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Katie Volynets wins, best of 3 42%90%: 12%–79% · best of 5: 41%

Serve points won 55.4% / 56.8% Katie / Harmony · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 42%serve 55.4% / 56.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Katie Volynets's record against Harmony Tan's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Katie	Harmony
Direction choice	−0.17 ±0.13 better than 23%	+0.06 ±0.07 better than 66%
Shot selection	±0.00 ±0.15 better than 45%	−0.57 ±0.60 better than 9%
Execution	+1.57 ±0.45 better than 97%	−0.10 ±1.93 better than 57%
Points left on the table	2.59 ±0.19 lower than 53%	2.65 ±0.13 lower than 44%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Katie Volynets serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Katie wins	v Harmony	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	64%	61%	58.9%±9.7	62% ▲
Body	29%	52%	57%	51.6%±11.3	13% ▼
T	24%	58%	66%	55.9%±12.1	25%

Optimal v Harmony Tan: +0.9±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Katie wins	v Harmony	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	28%	68%	63%	66.0%±10.7	43% ▲
Body	22%	54%	62%	59.6%±11.1	7% ▼
T	50%	59%	70%	64.8%±11.5	50%

Optimal v Harmony Tan: +0.5±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Harmony Tan serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Harmony wins	v Katie	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	63%	66%	62.8%±9.5	33% ▼
Body	27%	62%	57%	62.5%±10.9	42% ▲
T	30%	63%	63%	57.9%±11.9	25% ▼

Optimal v Katie Volynets: +0.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Harmony wins	v Katie	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	64%	62%	60.5%±11.1	30% ▼
Body	20%	59%	52%	54.9%±12.9	27% ▲
T	44%	57%	64%	56.4%±10.4	43%

Optimal v Katie Volynets: ±0.0±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Katie Volynets returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Harmony	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.2	+1.6	−0.2	+5.6±2.9
FH crosscourt	32%	+5.3	+1.3	+2.2	+8.8±4.0
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	−2.2	−2.2	−2.9±4.4
FH slice through the middle	5%	−6.7	−0.3	+0.8	−6.2±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	±0.0	−0.2	−6.8±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (372 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Harmony	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.0	+1.5	+2.6	+10.1±2.8
BH crosscourt	25%	+7.7	+4.0	+2.7	+14.5±3.6
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+1.4	+0.1	+3.7±4.3
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	±0.0	−0.5	−6.7±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	+0.5	±0.0	−3.7±1.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.4±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (294 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Harmony	Value
FH through the middle	54%	−3.2	+2.6	+0.8	+0.3±3.1
FH crosscourt	35%	+0.5	+1.2	+3.7	+5.4±4.3
FH down the line	11%	−0.6	−2.5	+2.3	−0.7±4.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (83 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Harmony	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.6	+1.4	+2.0	+0.8±2.8
BH crosscourt	32%	+1.5	+3.5	+1.7	+6.7±3.5
BH down the line	20%	−0.5	−0.3	−0.7	−1.6±5.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (125 returns charted)

Harmony Tan returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Katie	Value
FH through the middle	35%	+4.2	+1.9	+1.9	+8.0±2.7
FH slice through the middle	24%	−6.7	+1.5	−0.5	−5.7±2.4
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.3	+0.2	+3.9	+9.5±3.7
FH down the line	13%	+1.5	+2.9	+1.9	+6.3±4.0
FH slice down the line	6%	−10.5	+0.7	±0.0	−9.8±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.8±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (82 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Katie	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.0	+1.5	+1.6	+9.2±2.6
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	−0.1	+2.6	+10.1±3.2
BH slice through the middle	18%	−6.2	+2.0	+0.7	−3.5±2.0
BH down the line	9%	+2.2	+0.8	+1.3	+4.2±3.9

Lean BH through the middle: +2.6±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Katie Volynets

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+6.4±3.3	+1.9	+4.5
BH to the middle · rally	+5.9±2.8	+2.6	+3.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+5.5±4.5	+1.1	+4.4
FH to the middle · return	+4.9±3.6	+2.2	+2.7
FH to the middle · rally	+3.9±3.1	+2.0	+1.8
BH slice to the middle · rally	+3.0±3.0	+1.3	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.2±4.3	+2.7	−3.8
BH to the middle · return +1	+1.0±3.4	+0.2	+0.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.2±5.3	+1.4	−0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.5±3.8	+2.4	−0.8
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.9±5.2	+1.8	+0.1

Harmony Tan

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+7.4±3.1	+5.0	+2.4
BH to their forehand · rally	+5.9±5.6	+5.4	+0.5
FH to the middle · return	+5.6±3.6	+2.8	+2.9
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+5.6±4.8	+4.2	+1.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+5.2±3.9	+4.8	+0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.9±4.0	+4.1	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.7±5.1	−0.6	−1.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.6±4.4	−1.9	+0.3
BH to the middle · return	+2.0±3.4	−0.9	+2.9
BH to the middle · rally	+2.1±3.0	+0.3	+1.8
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.9±4.0	+4.1	−0.1

Against Harmony Tan-like opponents

Katie Volynets v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	55.8%	44.0%