Game plan

Kristina Mladenovic v Alexandra Eala

Every number combines what Kristina Mladenovic does well with what Alexandra Eala allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Kristina Mladenovic wins, best of 3 25%90%: 10%–49% · best of 5: 20%

Serve points won 50.6% / 55.6% Kristina / Alexandra · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 25%serve 50.6% / 55.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Kristina Mladenovic's record against Alexandra Eala's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Kristina	Alexandra
Direction choice	+0.11 ±0.08 better than 74%	−0.02 ±0.07 better than 50%
Shot selection	+0.31 ±0.15 better than 79%	+0.35 ±0.15 better than 83%
Execution	−1.28 ±0.74 better than 14%	+0.51 ±0.45 better than 79%
Points left on the table	2.64 ±0.14 lower than 45%	2.89 ±0.13 lower than 16%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Kristina Mladenovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Kristina wins	v Alexandra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	65%	61%	60.6%±6.9	47%
Body	16%	61%	59%	61.6%±9.6	1% ▼
T	37%	76%	73%	80.8%±6.0	52% ▲

Optimal v Alexandra Eala: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +12.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Kristina wins	v Alexandra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	37%	66%	64%	65.1%±7.8	37%
Body	25%	53%	51%	48.0%±9.4	10% ▼
T	38%	66%	59%	60.9%±8.0	53% ▲

Optimal v Alexandra Eala: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alexandra Eala serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexandra wins	v Kristina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	30%	66%	70%	69.8%±7.7	45% ▲
Body	29%	56%	58%	57.1%±9.1	29%
T	41%	55%	68%	55.7%±7.8	26% ▼

Optimal v Kristina Mladenovic: +0.8±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +9.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexandra wins	v Kristina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	61%	70%	65.9%±7.2	54% ▲
Body	26%	55%	64%	63.1%±9.6	18% ▼
T	35%	62%	65%	63.4%±8.5	28% ▼

Optimal v Kristina Mladenovic: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Kristina Mladenovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.2	−1.0	−2.1	+1.1±2.6
FH crosscourt	39%	+5.3	−4.4	+1.3	+2.2±4.0
FH down the line	9%	+1.5	−0.6	+0.6	+1.6±4.5
FH slice through the middle	4%	−6.7	+0.1	−0.4	−7.1±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	−0.1	−0.3	−7.1±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (248 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	−1.1	+2.9	+7.8±2.4
BH crosscourt	22%	+7.7	−0.6	+5.8	+13.0±3.4
BH down the line	15%	+2.2	−1.2	+1.4	+2.4±4.6
BH slice through the middle	12%	−6.2	+0.6	+1.5	−4.2±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.2	−0.6	+0.2	−4.7±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.8±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (303 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.2	−0.2	−1.4	−4.8±2.9
FH crosscourt	40%	+0.5	−1.5	+3.2	+2.3±4.4
FH down the line	12%	−0.6	+0.3	+1.5	+1.3±4.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (89 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
BH through the middle	33%	−2.6	−1.9	+1.2	−3.3±2.6
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.5	−1.2	−0.8	−0.5±3.6
FH through the middle	13%	−2.7	−0.8	−1.4	−4.9±2.5
FH inside-out	11%	+1.4	+3.2	+1.5	+6.1±4.2
FH inside-in	11%	+0.7	−1.3	+3.2	+2.7±4.6

Lean FH inside-out: +6.9±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (237 returns charted)

Alexandra Eala returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kristina	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.2	+1.5	−0.3	+5.3±2.7
FH crosscourt	36%	+5.3	+2.3	+0.5	+8.1±4.0
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	+1.0	−0.2	+2.3±4.7
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	−0.4	+0.4	−6.6±2.0
FH slice through the middle	3%	−6.7	−0.5	+0.9	−6.4±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (342 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kristina	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+1.3	+0.4	+7.8±2.5
BH crosscourt	37%	+7.7	+1.3	−1.7	+7.4±3.4
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	+3.2	−2.0	+3.4±4.5
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	+2.3	−1.9	−5.8±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−0.3	−2.0	−6.4±2.3

Lean BH through the middle: +1.7±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (436 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kristina	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.2	+2.3	+0.8	−0.1±3.1
FH down the line	33%	−0.6	+0.3	+3.7	+3.5±5.2
FH crosscourt	30%	+0.5	+1.6	+3.2	+5.4±4.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (134 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kristina	Value
BH crosscourt	48%	+1.5	+1.7	+5.1	+8.3±3.6
BH through the middle	38%	−2.6	+0.9	±0.0	−1.7±2.7
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	+0.5	+1.2	+1.1±4.8
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−7.5	−1.9	±0.0	−9.4±1.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (222 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Kristina Mladenovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+8.1±4.4	+3.1	+5.1
FH to their forehand · return +1	+8.0±5.1	+1.6	+6.4
FH to the middle · return +1	+4.8±3.7	+3.0	+1.8
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.0±3.4	+0.5	+3.5
FH to their backhand · return	+3.1±5.4	±0.0	+3.1
BH to the middle · return	+2.9±2.6	+0.1	+2.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−8.2±5.3	−2.5	−5.6
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.1±5.3	−6.0	+2.0
FH to the middle · return	−3.0±2.9	−1.3	−1.7
FH to the middle · rally	−2.3±2.9	−3.2	+0.9
FH to their forehand · return	−2.0±5.1	−3.6	+1.6

Alexandra Eala

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+10.4±5.3	+7.5	+3.0
BH to their forehand · rally	+7.8±5.0	+4.8	+3.1
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+6.7±4.4	+3.3	+3.4
FH to their backhand · return	+6.3±4.8	+3.8	+2.5
FH to the middle · serve +1	+3.2±3.5	+1.2	+2.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.1±4.8	+0.5	+2.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	−1.1±2.6	+0.1	−1.2
FH to their forehand · return +1	−0.6±5.0	−1.1	+0.5
FH to their backhand · return +1	−0.4±5.4	−0.4	+0.1
BH to the middle · return +1	±0.0±3.5	−0.9	+0.9
FH to the middle · rally	+0.1±2.9	+0.3	−0.2

Against Alexandra Eala-like opponents

Kristina Mladenovic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	54.5%	42.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Diana Shnaider, Anna Blinkova, Marta Kostyuk, Iga Swiatek, Jasmine Paolini, Maya Joint, Jaqueline Cristian, Nao Hibino, Eugenie Bouchard, Dominika Cibulkova. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.