Game plan

Lin Zhu v Indy De Vroome

Every number combines what Lin Zhu does well with what Indy De Vroome allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Lin Zhu wins, best of 3 33%90%: 7%–72% · best of 5: 29%

Serve points won 53.9% / 57.2% Lin / Indy · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 33%serve 53.9% / 57.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Lin Zhu's record against Indy De Vroome's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Lin Zhu serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Lin wins	v Indy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	62%	67%	63.0%±9.7	53% ▲
Body	23%	64%	58%	64.8%±10.8	36% ▲
T	26%	57%	66%	54.9%±15.5	11% ▼

Optimal v Indy De Vroome: +0.5±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Lin wins	v Indy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	34%	56%	59%	48.9%±13.5	20% ▼
Body	25%	55%	49%	47.7%±11.4	24% ▼
T	41%	61%	63%	59.6%±12.4	56% ▲

Optimal v Indy De Vroome: +0.5±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Indy De Vroome serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Indy wins	v Lin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	71%	74%	78.6%±8.7	53% ▲
Body	45%	59%	59%	60.3%±11.6	30% ▼
T	17%	70%	73%	75.3%±12.3	17%

Optimal v Lin Zhu: +1.2±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +8.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Indy wins	v Lin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	6%	67%	71%	72.2%±12.8	22% ▲
Body	32%	61%	60%	64.8%±12.0	23% ▼
T	61%	71%	64%	70.9%±10.3	55% ▼

Optimal v Lin Zhu: +0.8±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Lin Zhu returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Indy	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.2	+1.1	−2.4	+2.8±3.1
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.3	−1.8	−1.2	+2.3±4.1
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	−0.6	+1.3	+2.2±4.3
FH slice through the middle	6%	−6.7	−0.6	−1.2	−8.5±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	−0.6	−4.4	−11.6±2.2

Lean FH through the middle: +1.7±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (185 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Indy	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.0	±0.0	+0.2	+6.2±2.9
BH crosscourt	32%	+7.7	−0.5	−3.3	+3.9±3.4
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+2.0	−3.1	+1.1±3.7
BH slice through the middle	7%	−6.2	+0.1	±0.0	−6.1±1.4
BH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.2	−0.2	±0.0	−4.4±1.2

Lean BH through the middle: +2.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (136 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Indy	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	−0.2	−2.6	−5.4±2.5
BH crosscourt	32%	+1.5	+0.2	+0.6	+2.3±3.0
BH down the line	21%	−0.5	+0.2	−1.2	−1.6±3.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (57 returns charted)

Indy De Vroome returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lin	Value
FH through the middle	58%	+4.2	+0.4	−1.0	+3.5±2.9
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.3	−0.4	+3.1	+8.0±4.3
FH down the line	7%	+1.5	−0.4	+2.1	+3.2±4.0
FH slice through the middle	6%	−6.7	+0.9	+0.2	−5.7±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.8±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (98 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Lin Zhu

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−1.5±3.7	+3.8	−5.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.5±4.9	+0.1	−3.6
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.5±6.1	−2.9	−2.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.5±6.1	−2.9	−2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.5±4.9	+0.1	−3.6
FH to the middle · return	−1.5±3.7	+3.8	−5.3

Indy De Vroome

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.8±4.6	−2.6	+5.4
FH to the middle · return	+1.6±3.8	−0.1	+1.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.1±5.7	+2.6	−2.7
BH to the middle · return	−0.4±3.3	−0.6	+0.2
BH to the middle · rally	−1.4±3.2	−0.7	−0.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.8±4.2	−7.0	+3.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.2±6.5	−6.6	+2.4
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.8±4.2	−7.0	+3.3
BH to the middle · rally	−1.4±3.2	−0.7	−0.7
BH to the middle · return	−0.4±3.3	−0.6	+0.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.1±5.7	+2.6	−2.7

Against Indy De Vroome-like opponents

Lin Zhu v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	51.5%	38.8%