Game plan

Linda Fruhvirtova v Pauline Parmentier

Every number combines what Linda Fruhvirtova does well with what Pauline Parmentier allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Linda Fruhvirtova wins, best of 3 69%90%: 30%–93% · best of 5: 73%

Serve points won 59.8% / 56.0% Linda / Pauline · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 69%serve 59.8% / 56.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Linda Fruhvirtova's record against Pauline Parmentier's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Linda Fruhvirtova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Linda wins	v Pauline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	67%	73%	73.8%±9.4	54% ▲
Body	14%	63%	63%	67.8%±12.3	0% ▼
T	47%	71%	73%	76.2%±9.2	46% ▼

Optimal v Pauline Parmentier: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Linda wins	v Pauline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	68%	71%	73.5%±9.4	54% ▲
Body	16%	52%	60%	56.0%±15.3	1% ▼
T	45%	64%	67%	66.9%±11.1	45%

Optimal v Pauline Parmentier: +0.9±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Pauline Parmentier serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Pauline wins	v Linda	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	62%	68%	63.4%±10.5	47%
Body	26%	64%	52%	58.9%±12.5	10% ▼
T	28%	67%	72%	71.6%±11.1	43% ▲

Optimal v Linda Fruhvirtova: +0.5±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Pauline wins	v Linda	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	67%	63%	64.9%±11.2	43% ▲
Body	18%	61%	58%	62.7%±13.6	3% ▼
T	46%	65%	65%	65.7%±10.8	54% ▲

Optimal v Linda Fruhvirtova: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Linda Fruhvirtova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pauline	Value
FH through the middle	54%	+4.2	+3.1	−0.4	+6.9±2.9
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.3	+2.7	+1.7	+9.7±3.9
FH down the line	19%	+1.5	+1.3	−0.8	+2.0±4.4
FH slice through the middle	2%	−6.7	+0.5	−0.1	−6.3±1.6
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	+0.6	±0.0	−6.0±1.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (331 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pauline	Value
BH crosscourt	43%	+7.7	+1.5	−5.0	+4.2±3.4
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	+1.6	−2.7	+4.9±2.9
BH down the line	8%	+2.2	−2.2	−0.6	−0.6±3.9
BH slice through the middle	4%	−6.2	+0.2	±0.0	−6.0±1.4
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	+0.1	±0.0	−4.0±1.2

Lean BH through the middle: +1.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (272 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pauline	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.2	+2.1	−1.5	−2.6±3.0
FH crosscourt	35%	+0.5	±0.0	−0.4	+0.2±4.1
FH down the line	21%	−0.6	+2.1	−0.3	+1.2±4.2

Lean FH down the line: +2.0±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (95 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pauline	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.6	+0.9	−1.0	−2.7±2.7
BH crosscourt	41%	+1.5	−0.3	+0.5	+1.7±3.6
BH down the line	15%	−0.5	−0.2	+0.7	±0.0±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.2±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (119 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Pauline Parmentier returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Linda	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.2	−2.5	−1.1	+0.6±2.9
FH crosscourt	49%	+5.3	+0.2	+2.3	+7.8±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (59 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Linda	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.0	−1.5	+0.7	+5.2±2.6
BH crosscourt	31%	+7.7	−0.4	−2.9	+4.4±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.2	−1.1	−0.7	−6.0±2.3
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	+0.9	−0.1	−5.4±2.0
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	+1.4	+3.4	+6.9±3.9

Lean BH through the middle: +2.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (83 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Linda Fruhvirtova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+6.0±4.6	+3.4	+2.6
FH to the middle · rally	+3.9±3.5	+3.1	+0.8
BH to the middle · rally	+3.5±3.4	+0.6	+3.0
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.2±4.1	+2.2	±0.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.4±4.8	+2.7	−1.3
FH to the middle · return	−1.4±3.8	+0.9	−2.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−2.2±3.7	+1.6	−3.8
FH to the middle · return	−1.4±3.8	+0.9	−2.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.4±4.8	+2.7	−1.3
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.2±4.1	+2.2	±0.0
BH to the middle · rally	+3.5±3.4	+0.6	+3.0

Pauline Parmentier

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+7.7±5.8	+2.3	+5.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.9±5.0	+1.5	+2.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.0±4.4	−0.4	+3.5
BH to the middle · rally	−0.9±3.2	−1.5	+0.7
FH to the middle · rally	−1.4±3.5	−0.2	−1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.7±4.3	−2.3	+0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−4.4±4.0	−1.8	−2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.7±4.3	−2.3	+0.6
FH to the middle · rally	−1.4±3.5	−0.2	−1.1
BH to the middle · rally	−0.9±3.2	−1.5	+0.7
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.0±4.4	−0.4	+3.5

Against Pauline Parmentier-like opponents

Linda Fruhvirtova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	56.2%	42.6%