RallyIQ

Game plan

Linda Klimovicova v Anhelina Kalinina

Every number combines what Linda Klimovicova does well with what Anhelina Kalinina allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Linda Klimovicova wins, best of 3 58%90%: 18%–91% · best of 5: 61%
Serve points won 57.7% / 56.1% Linda / Anhelina · tour 55.0%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 58%serve 57.7% / 56.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Linda Klimovicova's record against Anhelina Kalinina's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerLindaAnhelina
Direction choice+0.27 ±0.09
better than 92%
+0.24 ±0.10
better than 90%
Shot selection+0.47 ±0.14
better than 93%
−0.03 ±0.17
better than 44%
Execution+1.01 ±0.86
better than 92%
+0.47 ±0.64
better than 78%
Points left on the table2.13 ±0.17
lower than 97%
2.11 ±0.10
lower than 98%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Linda Klimovicova serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowLinda winsv AnhelinaMatchupOptimal
Wide45%63%64%61.8%±8.345%
Body17%59%58%59.8%±10.61% ▼
T39%78%62%73.2%±8.754% ▲

Optimal v Anhelina Kalinina: +0.9±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowLinda winsv AnhelinaMatchupOptimal
Wide53%72%64%70.6%±7.952%
Body16%48%51%42.5%±11.21% ▼
T31%68%66%70.1%±9.047% ▲

Optimal v Anhelina Kalinina: +1.7±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Anhelina Kalinina serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowAnhelina winsv LindaMatchupOptimal
Wide39%61%68%62.4%±8.539%
Body27%55%54%51.6%±9.312% ▼
T34%64%68%63.6%±9.849% ▲

Optimal v Linda Klimovicova: +1.1±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowAnhelina winsv LindaMatchupOptimal
Wide50%63%61%58.8%±8.450%
Body25%51%55%49.9%±10.59% ▼
T25%62%64%62.0%±9.941% ▲

Optimal v Linda Klimovicova: +1.0±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Linda Klimovicova returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AnhelinaValue
FH through the middle43%+4.2+1.1+1.1+6.3±2.8
FH crosscourt25%+5.3+1.6+1.6+8.4±4.3
FH down the line17%+1.5+1.0+1.5+4.0±4.6
FH slice through the middle10%−6.7+0.8±0.0−5.9±2.3
FH slice crosscourt6%−6.6+0.5+0.9−5.2±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.8±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (215 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AnhelinaValue
BH through the middle43%+6.0+1.8+0.1+7.9±2.7
BH crosscourt38%+7.7+2.8−1.4+9.1±3.4
BH down the line7%+2.2+0.9−0.9+2.2±4.3
BH slice crosscourt7%−4.2−0.4+0.4−4.2±2.4
BH slice through the middle4%−6.2±0.0−1.2−7.5±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.7±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (195 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AnhelinaValue
BH crosscourt53%+1.5+1.9−1.9+1.5±3.6
BH through the middle35%−2.6−0.5±0.0−3.1±2.7
FH inside-in6%+0.7+1.5−1.1+1.2±3.9
BH down the line5%−0.5−0.3+5.1+4.3±4.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.5±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (94 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Anhelina Kalinina returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv LindaValue
FH through the middle38%+4.2−2.3+1.8+3.6±3.0
FH crosscourt26%+5.3+3.1−1.2+7.2±4.2
FH slice through the middle16%−6.7+0.5−0.4−6.6±2.4
FH down the line11%+1.5−1.3−3.6−3.4±4.7
FH slice crosscourt7%−6.6+1.3−0.5−5.8±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.0±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (312 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv LindaValue
BH through the middle48%+6.0+1.3+0.7+8.1±2.8
BH crosscourt44%+7.7−0.2+3.2+10.7±3.5
BH down the line9%+2.2+3.6−4.4+1.4±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.0±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (270 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv LindaValue
FH crosscourt48%+0.5+0.4+2.5+3.4±4.4
FH through the middle35%−3.2+3.0−2.3−2.4±3.0
FH down the line17%−0.6+0.1−0.4−0.8±4.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.8±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (81 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv LindaValue
BH crosscourt58%+1.5−1.0−0.4±0.0±3.7
BH through the middle37%−2.6+1.4−2.0−3.2±2.7
BH down the line6%−0.5+0.8−2.9−2.6±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.3±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (120 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Linda Klimovicova

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their forehand · return+6.5±5.8+3.0+3.6
BH to their backhand · serve +1+6.5±4.9+4.7+1.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1+5.0±5.3+4.0+1.0
BH to their forehand · return+4.7±5.6+1.2+3.5
BH to their forehand · rally+4.2±4.8+2.0+2.2
BH to the middle · serve +1+3.7±3.1+2.3+1.4

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their backhand · rally−1.4±4.4−3.6+2.2
BH to their forehand · serve +1−0.7±5.8−1.7+1.0
FH to the middle · rally+0.6±3.2+1.5−0.8
BH to the middle · rally+0.8±3.2+0.5+0.3
FH to their forehand · return +1+0.9±4.7+1.9−1.0

Anhelina Kalinina

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their backhand · rally+11.2±4.8+2.8+8.4
FH to their forehand · return+6.7±5.3+6.0+0.7
FH to their backhand · return +1+5.4±5.2+0.1+5.3
FH to their forehand · rally+4.5±4.5+1.5+3.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1+4.5±4.7+2.5+2.0
BH to their backhand · rally+4.3±3.8+1.3+3.0

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH to their forehand · return−5.4±5.4±0.0−5.4
BH to their backhand · serve +1−3.8±4.0−4.3+0.5
FH to their backhand · return−3.3±5.1−0.5−2.8
BH to their forehand · rally−3.2±5.7−0.5−2.7
BH to their backhand · return +1−3.0±4.5−2.5−0.6

Against Anhelina Kalinina-like opponents

Linda Klimovicova vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–60.2%42.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Anna Blinkova, Magda Linette, Sara Bejlek, Varvara Gracheva, Yue Yuan, Anastasija Sevastova, Su Wei Hsieh, Anett Kontaveit, Elena Vesnina. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.